TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,978,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,524,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,978,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,777 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c8,999,995$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.991526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c2,532,422$10,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,732.18210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c2,147,906$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,576.0340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558e…2ee7backed Yes0c1,611,477$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.4840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Yes0c1,600,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c1,455,369$4,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,366.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…3690backed Yes0c1,404,288$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes2c1,126,280$25,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,659.951618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…5b80backed Yes0c1,110,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1773…47ebbacked Yes0c1,083,628$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes0c1,040,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b5…a045backed Yes0c900,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Yes1c867,122$5,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,480.6270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e6…5b51backed Yes0c710,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c573,585$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.821020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c547,326$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5382…f18fbacked Yes1c515,464$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Yes0c500,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c500,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes0c500,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c460,541$5,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.53160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes0c409,587$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.17100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979b…e47cbacked Yes0c387,131$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c384,281$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69d…2d3bbacked Yes0c371,650$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aea…10c9backed Yes0c350,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes2c344,492$5,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,335.63120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba8…b0cbbacked Yes0c326,280$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.2890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019a…92e9backed Yes0c308,425$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes1c300,515$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,097.58922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x101f…f79abacked Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeac…0216backed Yes1c299,325$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.3840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf45…ec7dbacked Yes4c294,766$12,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,181.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1f…74a1backed Yes0c259,313$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes1c253,419$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c246,455$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.4170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes1c220,109$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d2…38aebacked Yes1c206,372$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes2c200,710$4,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,836.95100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes0c200,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c196,861$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.09205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff57…1ffebacked Yes0c194,100$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…321fbacked Yes0c192,620$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes2c183,722$4,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,281.74180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5eb…b9d6backed Yes2c179,817$3,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,757.160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b4…9846backed Yes0c178,020$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c167,043$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.9160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes0c166,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes2c160,257$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.4390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed Yes2c160,003$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,244.83911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Yes0c158,334$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c90…79f4backed Yes0c150,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes1c148,210$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.4780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13aa…9ba1backed Yes0c139,655$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed Yes1c133,487$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1b25backed Yes1c121,500$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18b…563ebacked Yes0c118,541$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcefb…373dbacked Yes1c115,586$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0040…1e33backed Yes0c113,705$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes4c111,863$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,244.51922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-55.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3762…b66dbacked Yes3c110,192$3,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fda…8405backed Yes0c109,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes0c107,000$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes2c106,544$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.41130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48df…eb90backed Yes1c106,091$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa607…2caebacked Yes0c101,000$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7720…da92backed Yes1c100,517$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bd…1fecbacked Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731a…f859backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes1c100,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d1…cef4backed Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b1…17c7backed Yes0c98,260$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c98,144$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.44511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8be1…4833backed Yes0c97,700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24f…bae5backed Yes1c93,956$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c91,425$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.4195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ff…3e4fbacked Yes0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x381a…360abacked Yes0c88,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c87,172$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.17280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c7…44fdbacked Yes1c83,660$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes1c81,248$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.332412.5%3 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes2c80,250$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.464415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes1c80,141$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.52120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes0c80,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Yes0c79,667$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb77e…2da6backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes1c75,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes1c73,192$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a83…a9a0backed Yes0c69,599$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.13616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-78.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x107a…b962backed Yes0c69,500$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes0c67,477$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes3c66,973$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.411833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c1…c63abacked Yes0c66,500$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9357…4c9bbacked Yes0c62,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c61,401$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.03960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes1c60,429$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15da…d514backed Yes1c60,303$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.77100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes0c59,370$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1422…1492backed Yes0c59,090$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.