Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4d00e5bf8b960cc37c74c1ec19e41e00b0706add203ddcfbb65ad006c5c223a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,978,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,524,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,978,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,777 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,999,995$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,999.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 2,532,422$10,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,732.18 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 0c | 2,147,906$4,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,576.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…2ee7backed Yes | 0c | 1,611,477$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Yes | 0c | 1,600,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 1,455,369$4,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,366.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…3690backed Yes | 0c | 1,404,288$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,126,280$25,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,659.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…5b80backed Yes | 0c | 1,110,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…47ebbacked Yes | 0c | 1,083,628$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes | 0c | 1,040,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b5…a045backed Yes | 0c | 900,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 1c | 867,122$5,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,480.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…5b51backed Yes | 0c | 710,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes | 0c | 573,585$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 547,326$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…f18fbacked Yes | 1c | 515,464$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 1c | 460,541$5,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,435.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes | 0c | 409,587$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…e47cbacked Yes | 0c | 387,131$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 384,281$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.9 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…2d3bbacked Yes | 0c | 371,650$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 0c | 350,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 2c | 344,492$5,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,335.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…b0cbbacked Yes | 0c | 326,280$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…92e9backed Yes | 0c | 308,425$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes | 1c | 300,515$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…f79abacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 1c | 299,325$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…ec7dbacked Yes | 4c | 294,766$12,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,181.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…74a1backed Yes | 0c | 259,313$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes | 1c | 253,419$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 246,455$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 1c | 220,109$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…38aebacked Yes | 1c | 206,372$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 2c | 200,710$4,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,836.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 1c | 196,861$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.09 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff57…1ffebacked Yes | 0c | 194,100$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…321fbacked Yes | 0c | 192,620$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 2c | 183,722$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,281.74 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…b9d6backed Yes | 2c | 179,817$3,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b4…9846backed Yes | 0c | 178,020$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 1c | 167,043$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.9 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 0c | 166,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes | 2c | 160,257$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…fe63backed Yes | 2c | 160,003$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…a0d9backed Yes | 0c | 158,334$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…79f4backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 1c | 148,210$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…9ba1backed Yes | 0c | 139,655$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 1c | 133,487$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Yes | 1c | 121,500$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…563ebacked Yes | 0c | 118,541$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefb…373dbacked Yes | 1c | 115,586$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…1e33backed Yes | 0c | 113,705$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 4c | 111,863$4,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…b66dbacked Yes | 3c | 110,192$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 0c | 109,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 0c | 107,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Yes | 2c | 106,544$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.41 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…eb90backed Yes | 1c | 106,091$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 0c | 101,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 1c | 100,517$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…1fecbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…f859backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…cef4backed Yes | 0c | 99,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 98,260$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 98,144$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be1…4833backed Yes | 0c | 97,700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 1c | 93,956$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 91,425$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…3e4fbacked Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…360abacked Yes | 0c | 88,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 87,172$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c7…44fdbacked Yes | 1c | 83,660$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 1c | 81,248$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.33 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 2c | 80,250$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.46 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 1c | 80,141$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Yes | 0c | 79,667$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…2da6backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 1c | 75,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 1c | 73,192$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…a9a0backed Yes | 0c | 69,599$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…b962backed Yes | 0c | 69,500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes | 0c | 67,477$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 3c | 66,973$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c1…c63abacked Yes | 0c | 66,500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…4c9bbacked Yes | 0c | 62,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 61,401$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.03 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 1c | 60,429$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed Yes | 1c | 60,303$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes | 0c | 59,370$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1422…1492backed Yes | 0c | 59,090$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.