TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,025,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,538,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,025,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 662 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c10,041,466$20,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,482.931526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c2,945,241$12,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,319.91210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c2,512,332$7,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,138.791520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03b6…815bbacked Yes0c2,009,638$8,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,288.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c1,999,875$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.87190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c1,728,209$6,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,172.07320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes1c1,360,509$7,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,748.52160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c1,022,649$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,496.5280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c999,947$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.841020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes0c906,243$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.97520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b5…a045backed Yes0c900,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae8…b90abacked Yes0c611,111$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked Yes0c535,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c507,527$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.9780%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe04a…094fbacked Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9793…789cbacked Yes0c428,851$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.52100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48df…eb90backed Yes0c425,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c401,984$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,097.07205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101f…f79abacked Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes0c289,999$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fca…473cbacked Yes0c266,210$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes0c250,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes1c249,564$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.15180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0716…0c4fbacked Yes0c214,173$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e75…2dd9backed Yes1c207,402$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de2…4c07backed Yes1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes1c200,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002412.5%3 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1958…310bbacked Yes1c179,426$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.97248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c176,823$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.71303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fef…4849backed Yes0c175,750$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes1c156,858$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba8…b0cbbacked Yes0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x406d…b554backed Yes0c145,855$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c136,011$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.748924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…cc13backed Yes0c124,005$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe324…c5a6backed Yes0c121,300$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…ddb7backed Yes1c101,221$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.1140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fda…8405backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…e457backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…05aebacked Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…5b80backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb414…cf4dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…352abacked Yes1c100,000$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…cef4backed Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes0c98,891$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.561216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc465…f704backed Yes0c97,200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x829e…2c6dbacked Yes0c91,837$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cf…a305backed Yes0c84,750$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c84,134$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.13160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0511…a1efbacked Yes0c83,173$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes1c82,458$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4949…8f6bbacked Yes0c78,620$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes0c76,338$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.01140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3c…0283backed Yes0c75,290$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…5145backed Yes0c74,663$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes2c73,923$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.991618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes0c65,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes2c63,668$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.76100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c62,626$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.034511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe788…736bbacked Yes0c61,546$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4af…48bdbacked Yes3c60,787$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa729…e2d5backed Yes0c60,560$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5061…e7a2backed Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f7…69c3backed Yes0c54,148$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1747…87f0backed Yes2c53,985$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9357…4c9bbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa9…f915backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbf…9afabacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cff…afb1backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa54a…10febacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b4…cc72backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefb…54b2backed Yes36c49,984$17,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,908.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x130a…b382backed Yes2c49,950$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe15…14c0backed Yes0c49,382$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78dc…b46dbacked Yes0c46,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x140f…6497backed Yes0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c44,429$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.81160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f5…a937backed Yes0c43,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0699…86a1backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a23…ab0bbacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4211…906ebacked Yes1c40,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55dc…54c8backed Yes0c39,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes0c37,465$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb62c…276ebacked Yes0c37,333$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes2c35,667$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.84190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c7…4bc2backed Yes1c35,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…0c2abacked Yes0c34,080$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870f…0b32backed Yes0c33,900$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes2c33,338$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.784820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked Yes0c33,333$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e74…6d51backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes1c32,931$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.59150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc037…5c68backed Yes0c32,177$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes1c30,704$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.163016.7%5 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes0c30,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc00…2649backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c0…9079backed Yes0c26,250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…927dbacked Yes0c25,500$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.