TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe788…736b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 66 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 66 out of 100; worst Cricket at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$244.52
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$674.81
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,338Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+73.2%+$2,442.06
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,916Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$686.15
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.24
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,470Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+101.3%+$1,488.98
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.69
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.91
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$51.37
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$28.1
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$126.25
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.75
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$19.2
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$101.87
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$31.15
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.08
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$24.42
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$107.66
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.7
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.99
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.24
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.38
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.7
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$874.02
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$270.4
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2263.6%14 W · 8 L+6.7wins+0.30per pick33cpaid+125.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.9
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$613.71
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5.19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$140.48
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.31
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$429.22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$60.55
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+82.1%+$194.76
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+129.6%+$317.17
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$47.36
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.56
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$3.58
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,705.4%+$6,171.61
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,526Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+358.8%+$5,474.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+263.4%+$2,108.51
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.5%+$115
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+119.2%+$238.85
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+330.8%+$2,128.56
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$238.02
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$80.35
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$483.99
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.83
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.96
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.63
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.73
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$510.51
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,167.07
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,606Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,605.78
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,406Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,406.25
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$283.33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$416.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealandbacked South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$274.49
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1)backed India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+25.9%+$58.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+33.7%+$5.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$31.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.