Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a28cc33492516116690a20d290f9922acbe0ed367ff52a6082154474c7f2971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,556,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,551,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,556,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bb8…253ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,283,891$36,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,163.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 1c | 2,167,134$11,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,236.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 0c | 1,349,883$5,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 1,044,612$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 1c | 936,514$6,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,355.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 0c | 934,219$3,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 697,322$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.29 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 644,646$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.18 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 1c | 558,988$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,353.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes | 0c | 500,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 450,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 322,353$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.71 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.63 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes | 0c | 296,158$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 1c | 274,000$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.44 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…fb1ebacked Yes | 0c | 199,333$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 0c | 199,173$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 0c | 179,665$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 172,136$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…1031backed Yes | 0c | 155,770$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 0c | 152,666$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 0c | 150,962$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…0376backed Yes | 0c | 150,208$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed Yes | 1c | 150,000$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 0c | 145,086$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…c7c8backed Yes | 0c | 141,019$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…624fbacked Yes | 0c | 130,768$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 1c | 126,360$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.92 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 1c | 120,038$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 0c | 118,342$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…ff57backed Yes | 1c | 107,084$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 1c | 102,830$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 101,416$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.58 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 0c | 83,261$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.89 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 83,000$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 80,076$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…f77abacked Yes | 0c | 75,965$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…71a4backed Yes | 0c | 71,195$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…fb4dbacked Yes | 1c | 69,063$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 67,300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 0c | 66,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes | 0c | 65,053$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 59,192$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.98 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 1c | 56,668$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Yes | 0c | 56,397$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 0c | 54,811$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 0c | 54,129$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 0c | 52,789$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 51,428$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…9861backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.89 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 0c | 49,000$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 46,854$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 0c | 46,776$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 1c | 45,354$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…736bbacked Yes | 0c | 44,208$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.83 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…69acbacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…57ecbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 0c | 38,287$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…c62bbacked Yes | 1c | 37,863$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…2467backed Yes | 1c | 35,770$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c65…8b3ebacked Yes | 1c | 33,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…de2ebacked Yes | 0c | 32,510$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…9f16backed Yes | 0c | 32,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…780cbacked Yes | 0c | 32,210$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…5d08backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4f…4267backed Yes | 0c | 31,373$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…f238backed Yes | 0c | 31,298$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 30,663$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…47fdbacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…6032backed Yes | 1c | 29,419$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed Yes | 0c | 27,650$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7d…b088backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…8115backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 25,375$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…89c6backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…fb09backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…9798backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…3581backed Yes | 0c | 24,778$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b1…9a06backed Yes | 0c | 24,600$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…f2c2backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 0c | 23,573$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 0c | 21,283$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…562dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8463backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…bd26backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…afb0backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0960backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…26c9backed Yes | 0c | 19,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…324abacked Yes | 0c | 19,388$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.