TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,556,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,551,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,556,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0bb8…253ebacked Yes0c7,283,891$36,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,163.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes1c2,167,134$11,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,236.361618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes0c1,349,883$5,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,125.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes0c1,044,612$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes1c936,514$6,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,355.61520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed Yes0c934,219$3,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,797.741020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c697,322$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.29160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes0c644,646$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.183013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes1c558,988$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,353.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes0c500,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c450,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c322,353$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.71280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes0c300,000$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.63303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c300,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes0c296,158$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.79119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes1c274,000$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.44147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…fb1ebacked Yes0c199,333$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes0c199,173$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.52425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes0c179,665$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes1c172,136$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.811233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2d…1031backed Yes0c155,770$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes0c152,666$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.3234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-94.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed Yes0c150,962$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92ae…0376backed Yes0c150,208$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa94e…24e0backed Yes1c150,000$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+63%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes0c145,086$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d4…c7c8backed Yes0c141,019$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e13…624fbacked Yes0c130,768$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes1c126,360$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.927265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes1c120,038$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes0c118,342$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.56100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1213…ff57backed Yes1c107,084$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes1c102,830$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.17119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c101,416$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.58303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes0c83,261$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.89180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c83,000$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3148924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes0c80,076$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2312322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44d…f77abacked Yes0c75,965$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf44…71a4backed Yes0c71,195$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x217f…fb4dbacked Yes1c69,063$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c67,300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes0c66,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes0c65,053$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes0c60,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c59,192$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.98190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe821…b27ebacked Yes1c56,668$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…81d2backed Yes0c56,397$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1229…df38backed Yes0c54,811$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-79.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes0c54,129$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.69120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes0c52,789$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.522810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c51,428$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.43190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25e…9861backed Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c50,000$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.89160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes0c49,000$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2271442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+456.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c46,854$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes0c46,776$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-88.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes1c45,354$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe788…736bbacked Yes0c44,208$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.83120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes1c40,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes1c40,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7666…57ecbacked Yes0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3844…7285backed Yes0c38,287$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da4…c62bbacked Yes1c37,863$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19c…2467backed Yes1c35,770$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c65…8b3ebacked Yes1c33,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7909…de2ebacked Yes0c32,510$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe8…9f16backed Yes0c32,500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f16…780cbacked Yes0c32,210$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ea…5d08backed Yes0c32,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4f…4267backed Yes0c31,373$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bac…f238backed Yes0c31,298$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c30,663$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4423…47fdbacked Yes1c30,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb61…6032backed Yes1c29,419$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…d143backed Yes0c27,650$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7d…b088backed Yes0c27,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Yes0c27,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes0c25,375$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.132711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb076…89c6backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-80.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…fb09backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27a…9798backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes0c24,778$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.11140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b1…9a06backed Yes0c24,600$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…f2c2backed Yes0c24,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes0c23,573$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes0c21,283$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.62140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes0c20,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924314%6 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes0c20,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f37…562dbacked Yes0c20,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f7…8463backed Yes0c20,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0502…bd26backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5845…afb0backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bcf…26c9backed Yes0c19,500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fe…324abacked Yes0c19,388$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.