TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,994,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,003,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,994,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 785 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x859b…31b8backed Yes1c1,749,209$25,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,391.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c1,655,205$5,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,177.79210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,499,998$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes1c1,423,334$8,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,665.86119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-88.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb8…253ebacked Yes0c1,392,443$4,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,677.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8114…59a8backed Yes0c607,013$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes1c550,705$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…330abacked Yes0c500,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes0c456,140$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.2880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12dd…d701backed Yes0c412,000$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c368,671$2,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.32303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe821…b27ebacked Yes1c357,229$5,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,115.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2d…2adcbacked Yes2c333,774$5,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,046.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfde…8267backed Yes1c318,674$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf049…5193backed Yes0c313,055$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c308,244$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.49160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c284,016$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.138924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes1c264,149$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…611fbacked Yes0c256,500$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76dd…45bbbacked Yes0c248,070$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b0b…4576backed Yes0c236,035$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x799e…c667backed Yes0c235,030$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92ae…0376backed Yes0c230,339$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.3470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed Yes0c222,037$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c213,782$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9310420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdef…fa87backed Yes1c203,906$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes1c203,572$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes1c194,006$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.04156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c188,287$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.95190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes0c161,500$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e6…f9e6backed Yes0c154,195$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2db…84eabacked Yes0c149,715$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…ccb0backed Yes1c147,133$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes2c141,655$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.83160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3371…4f89backed Yes0c141,521$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…486abacked Yes0c141,220$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes0c138,130$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.261612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Yes0c133,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9609…d89fbacked Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes0c123,030$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.06728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+39.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes0c111,111$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes1c109,202$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.79110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e7…2c77backed Yes1c106,636$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d0…58a2backed Yes0c105,603$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3dc…09cdbacked Yes0c102,500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88fb…c0b4backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes0c95,407$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5645…1dc5backed Yes0c93,664$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6298…b24bbacked Yes0c93,000$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cf…a305backed Yes0c92,998$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaad…f253backed Yes0c90,865$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e5…3414backed Yes0c87,868$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce5…2169backed Yes0c84,523$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6682…e547backed Yes0c80,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff76…9c05backed Yes0c75,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes0c74,704$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae84…d87abacked Yes0c73,390$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c72,938$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.614511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes2c69,982$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.95147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6314…0183backed Yes0c69,310$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a8…6b2ebacked Yes0c66,804$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes0c63,005$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.26425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-68.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd83e…3b13backed Yes0c62,300$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438b…08f0backed Yes1c61,990$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.94520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes0c61,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-55.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b20…e68bbacked Yes0c59,935$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe788…736bbacked Yes0c56,230$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.46120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes0c55,500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11190%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976c…907cbacked Yes0c53,575$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x102f…7a56backed Yes0c53,324$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb09…ee0dbacked Yes0c53,054$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4f…4267backed Yes0c52,605$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc828…dbfabacked Yes0c52,394$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.84140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc822…a169backed Yes4c50,756$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes0c50,246$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.49425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f93…ff72backed Yes0c50,040$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7909…de2ebacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97f…2390backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a94…82b2backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c90…7628backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d9…8fadbacked Yes0c48,825$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes0c48,110$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.22160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb54c…500abacked Yes0c48,030$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes1c47,006$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.411118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes0c47,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-77.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdb…4496backed Yes2c45,448$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes0c45,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d5…151cbacked Yes1c44,926$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe46…9e1abacked Yes0c42,835$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc075…52f4backed Yes0c42,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fe…324abacked Yes0c41,235$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…0804backed Yes0c40,750$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375a…dbd4backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287f…d819backed Yes0c39,870$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1858…81e2backed Yes0c38,852$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…f8a9backed Yes0c37,900$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02d…9253backed Yes5c37,685$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.