Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ede078cae84a5877ac32d7fb48811e5c23549a1904b7df06ff7935c6d79d831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,994,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,003,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,994,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 785 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x859b…31b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,749,209$25,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,391.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 1,655,205$5,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,177.79 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 1,499,998$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 1c | 1,423,334$8,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,665.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…253ebacked Yes | 0c | 1,392,443$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,677.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…59a8backed Yes | 0c | 607,013$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes | 1c | 550,705$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…330abacked Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes | 0c | 456,140$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12dd…d701backed Yes | 0c | 412,000$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 368,671$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.32 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 1c | 357,229$5,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,115.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…2adcbacked Yes | 2c | 333,774$5,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,046.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…8267backed Yes | 1c | 318,674$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…5193backed Yes | 0c | 313,055$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 308,244$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.49 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 284,016$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.13 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 1c | 264,149$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…611fbacked Yes | 0c | 256,500$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dd…45bbbacked Yes | 0c | 248,070$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…4576backed Yes | 0c | 236,035$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…c667backed Yes | 0c | 235,030$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…0376backed Yes | 0c | 230,339$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 0c | 222,037$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 213,782$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.93 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…fa87backed Yes | 1c | 203,906$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes | 1c | 203,572$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 1c | 194,006$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.04 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 188,287$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660.95 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes | 0c | 161,500$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…f9e6backed Yes | 0c | 154,195$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…84eabacked Yes | 0c | 149,715$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…ccb0backed Yes | 1c | 147,133$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 2c | 141,655$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733.83 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…4f89backed Yes | 0c | 141,521$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…486abacked Yes | 0c | 141,220$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 0c | 138,130$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Yes | 0c | 133,333$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…d89fbacked Yes | 0c | 125,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed Yes | 0c | 123,030$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 0c | 111,111$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 1c | 109,202$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…2c77backed Yes | 1c | 106,636$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…58a2backed Yes | 0c | 105,603$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dc…09cdbacked Yes | 0c | 102,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…c0b4backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 0c | 95,407$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…1dc5backed Yes | 0c | 93,664$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b24bbacked Yes | 0c | 93,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cf…a305backed Yes | 0c | 92,998$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaad…f253backed Yes | 0c | 90,865$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e5…3414backed Yes | 0c | 87,868$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…2169backed Yes | 0c | 84,523$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6682…e547backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes | 0c | 74,704$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…d87abacked Yes | 0c | 73,390$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 72,938$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.61 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 2c | 69,982$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6314…0183backed Yes | 0c | 69,310$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a8…6b2ebacked Yes | 0c | 66,804$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 63,005$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…3b13backed Yes | 0c | 62,300$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…08f0backed Yes | 1c | 61,990$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 0c | 61,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…e68bbacked Yes | 0c | 59,935$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…736bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,230$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…907cbacked Yes | 0c | 53,575$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…7a56backed Yes | 0c | 53,324$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…ee0dbacked Yes | 0c | 53,054$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4f…4267backed Yes | 0c | 52,605$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…dbfabacked Yes | 0c | 52,394$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…a169backed Yes | 4c | 50,756$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 0c | 50,246$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f93…ff72backed Yes | 0c | 50,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…de2ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…2390backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a94…82b2backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…7628backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…8fadbacked Yes | 0c | 48,825$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 0c | 48,110$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…500abacked Yes | 0c | 48,030$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 1c | 47,006$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 0c | 47,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…4496backed Yes | 2c | 45,448$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…151cbacked Yes | 1c | 44,926$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…9e1abacked Yes | 0c | 42,835$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…52f4backed Yes | 0c | 42,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…324abacked Yes | 0c | 41,235$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0804backed Yes | 0c | 40,750$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…d819backed Yes | 0c | 39,870$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1858…81e2backed Yes | 0c | 38,852$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…f8a9backed Yes | 0c | 37,900$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9253backed Yes | 5c | 37,685$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.