Fed Rates · resolved market
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf1c1536ecb1c08fe13c6b71e8ab1f58bf3461c4cb79f5f1679f869a06aef86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,497,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,016,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,497,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,797 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 16c | 2,843,288$450,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450,684.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…697bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,005,405$792,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213,080.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 79c | 907,445$719,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187,800.11 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 13c | 777,667$102,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,269.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0feb…db5dbacked Yes | 74c | 759,930$563,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196,285.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 20c | 716,057$139,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139,844.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 705,358$537,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167,497.56 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 20c | 515,000$103,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,476.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 507,955$105,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105,956.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 24c | 454,000$111,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111,045.11 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked No | 22c | 400,000$87,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,755.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…14f1backed Yes | 78c | 300,550$234,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,593.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked No | 23c | 289,427$65,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,265.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd967…1409backed Yes | 75c | 280,373$210,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,898.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 79c | 246,991$194,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,405.26 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…213abacked Yes | 80c | 243,269$193,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,712.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked Yes | 78c | 216,112$168,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,274.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 210,002$37,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,870.15 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 13c | 202,848$26,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,409.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 17c | 194,670$32,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,582.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 79c | 175,934$139,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,260.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 172,215$27,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,345.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 77c | 166,847$128,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,366.93 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e76…448abacked Yes | 77c | 165,836$128,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,373.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked No | 22c | 165,108$35,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,723.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 77c | 155,406$120,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,335.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…8f1ebacked No | 22c | 154,896$34,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,434.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 19c | 148,491$28,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,174.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 80c | 131,299$104,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,519.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 10c | 126,910$12,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,872.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…47a2backed Yes | 79c | 126,258$99,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,347.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…d66ebacked Yes | 79c | 125,735$99,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,067.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…3ae9backed No | 16c | 124,538$19,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,926.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…56ecbacked Yes | 75c | 113,934$85,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,965.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 76c | 111,971$84,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,425.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…f92cbacked Yes | 72c | 111,000$80,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,875 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5455…8b2abacked Yes | 78c | 110,000$85,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,034.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…60f7backed Yes | 77c | 108,837$84,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,704.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 22c | 106,928$23,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,658.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe18…3be4backed Yes | 79c | 104,867$83,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,644.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked No | 5c | 101,000$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,103.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…7f92backed No | 7c | 99,835$6,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,988.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 21c | 98,076$20,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,493.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes | 74c | 96,886$71,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,310.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 77c | 95,694$73,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,452.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 75c | 95,000$71,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,470 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…1031backed No | 25c | 94,164$23,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,758.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 78c | 93,395$72,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,546.88 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked No | 8c | 92,098$7,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,146.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f8…316dbacked No | 21c | 91,487$19,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,617.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 28c | 87,072$24,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,222.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 78c | 81,149$63,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,808.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 24c | 80,379$19,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,569.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 23c | 76,660$17,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,984.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…0b0bbacked No | 4c | 75,675$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b6…4b4fbacked Yes | 76c | 75,607$57,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,523.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4506…43fdbacked No | 8c | 74,937$6,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,158.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 26c | 74,754$19,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,083.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…31b8backed Yes | 70c | 71,764$50,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,672.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Yes | 76c | 71,467$54,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,837.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 75c | 71,019$53,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,613.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…564ebacked Yes | 76c | 69,902$52,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,109.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…cb66backed Yes | 76c | 69,260$52,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,960.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…a64dbacked No | 7c | 68,000$4,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,858.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked No | 7c | 66,426$4,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,827.02 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 76c | 65,923$49,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,135.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…312fbacked Yes | 78c | 65,824$51,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,467.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 37c | 60,789$22,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,607.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked No | 26c | 60,000$15,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,799.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 8c | 59,789$4,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,728.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…c1b5backed Yes | 77c | 59,444$45,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,786.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 74c | 59,000$43,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…7917backed Yes | 74c | 58,498$43,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,259.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 79c | 57,988$45,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,212.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 56,002$9,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,008.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c4…7f2fbacked Yes | 72c | 54,809$39,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,072.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked No | 10c | 54,557$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,355.03 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…15acbacked No | 16c | 53,768$8,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,395.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 76c | 51,551$39,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,141.27 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6a…fcadbacked No | 5c | 50,288$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 22c | 50,134$11,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,272.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes | 62c | 50,000$31,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 10c | 50,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…d07cbacked No | 26c | 49,842$12,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,886.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…253ebacked No | 6c | 48,468$2,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…db13backed Yes | 77c | 46,947$35,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,002.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 46,845$37,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,724.1 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Yes | 75c | 46,693$35,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,477.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 74c | 45,395$33,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,794.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…d177backed No | 20c | 44,702$9,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,084.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 73c | 44,301$32,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,082.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 43,808$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,539.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…92d2backed Yes | 79c | 43,565$34,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,977.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked No | 9c | 43,184$3,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 78c | 42,512$32,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,547.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…fa62backed Yes | 78c | 42,512$33,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,420.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 74c | 42,156$31,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,050.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cf…3e24backed No | 5c | 42,046$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…c7c8backed No | 18c | 41,762$7,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,624.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 15c | 41,227$6,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,317.83 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.