TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,497,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,016,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,497,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,797 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a8a…7699backed No16c2,843,288$450,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450,684.39825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee4…697bbacked Yes79c1,005,405$792,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213,080.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes79c907,445$719,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187,800.114415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed No13c777,667$102,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,269.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0feb…db5dbacked Yes74c759,930$563,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196,285.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No20c716,057$139,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,844.19520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes76c705,358$537,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167,497.56303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed No20c515,000$103,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,476.49119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-88.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No21c507,955$105,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,956.551844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No24c454,000$111,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,045.11303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked No22c400,000$87,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,755.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0869…14f1backed Yes78c300,550$234,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,593.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked No23c289,427$65,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,265.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed Yes75c280,373$210,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,898.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes79c246,991$194,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,405.262810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd73d…213abacked Yes80c243,269$193,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,712.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ad…f13ebacked Yes78c216,112$168,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,274.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No18c210,002$37,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,870.1518135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No13c202,848$26,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,409.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No17c194,670$32,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,582.31020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes79c175,934$139,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,260.352030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No16c172,215$27,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,345.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes77c166,847$128,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,366.937737.7%29 W · 48 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e76…448abacked Yes77c165,836$128,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,373.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No22c165,108$35,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,723.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes77c155,406$120,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,335.6850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1027…8f1ebacked No22c154,896$34,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,434.75728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No19c148,491$28,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,174.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes80c131,299$104,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,519.933240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No10c126,910$12,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,872.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc436…47a2backed Yes79c126,258$99,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,347.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked Yes79c125,735$99,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,067.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb11a…3ae9backed No16c124,538$19,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,926.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1760…56ecbacked Yes75c113,934$85,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,965.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes76c111,971$84,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,425.631353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8db…f92cbacked Yes72c111,000$80,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,8751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5455…8b2abacked Yes78c110,000$85,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,034.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0111…60f7backed Yes77c108,837$84,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,704.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No22c106,928$23,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,658.951915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe18…3be4backed Yes79c104,867$83,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,644.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked No5c101,000$5,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,103.870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf28…7f92backed No7c99,835$6,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,988.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No21c98,076$20,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,493.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes74c96,886$71,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,310.791266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes77c95,694$73,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,452.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes75c95,000$71,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,4706516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2d…1031backed No25c94,164$23,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,758.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes78c93,395$72,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,546.88156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked No8c92,098$7,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,146.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f8…316dbacked No21c91,487$19,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,617.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No28c87,072$24,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,222.05166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes78c81,149$63,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,808.242544%11 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No24c80,379$19,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,569.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No23c76,660$17,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,984.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…0b0bbacked No4c75,675$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b6…4b4fbacked Yes76c75,607$57,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,523.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4506…43fdbacked No8c74,937$6,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,158.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No26c74,754$19,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,083.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859b…31b8backed Yes70c71,764$50,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,672.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Yes76c71,467$54,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,837.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes75c71,019$53,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,613.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e6…564ebacked Yes76c69,902$52,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,109.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf95…cb66backed Yes76c69,260$52,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,960.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…a64dbacked No7c68,000$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,858.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked No7c66,426$4,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,827.02190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes76c65,923$49,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,135.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…312fbacked Yes78c65,824$51,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,467.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No37c60,789$22,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,607.49850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked No26c60,000$15,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,799.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No8c59,789$4,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,728.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…c1b5backed Yes77c59,444$45,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,786.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes74c59,000$43,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,250742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6302…7917backed Yes74c58,498$43,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,259.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes79c57,988$45,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,212.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No16c56,002$9,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,008.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c4…7f2fbacked Yes72c54,809$39,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,072.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No10c54,557$5,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,355.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890d…15acbacked No16c53,768$8,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,395.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes76c51,551$39,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,141.27329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f6a…fcadbacked No5c50,288$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb59…83f9backed No22c50,134$11,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,272.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Yes62c50,000$31,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,000633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No10c50,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-58.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fb…d07cbacked No26c49,842$12,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,886.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb8…253ebacked No6c48,468$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,842.150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Yes77c46,947$35,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,002.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c46,845$37,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,724.111646.6%54 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes75c46,693$35,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,477.17560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff76…9c05backed Yes74c45,395$33,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,794.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c1…d177backed No20c44,702$9,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,084.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes73c44,301$32,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,082.711533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No10c43,808$4,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,539.39825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc32…92d2backed Yes79c43,565$34,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,977.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc26…7e7dbacked No9c43,184$3,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,964.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-82.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes78c42,512$32,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,547.071850%9 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…fa62backed Yes78c42,512$33,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,420.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes74c42,156$31,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,050.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cf…3e24backed No5c42,046$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d4…c7c8backed No18c41,762$7,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,624.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe03…f14fbacked No15c41,227$6,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,317.83140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.