Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c0abeecb5502e6e8d83155c27819174d8317af3c425c3afc5a8c45257a3793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,890,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,432,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,890,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,743 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 17c | 1,980,172$327,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327,123.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,130,640$166,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166,775.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0feb…db5dbacked No | 75c | 806,190$605,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200,765.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 24c | 738,844$175,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175,139.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked No | 78c | 673,723$524,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148,824.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996a…e3ccbacked Yes | 17c | 602,024$101,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,742.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 19c | 548,596$104,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,634.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 15c | 501,893$73,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,714.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 437,595$90,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,522.38 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 13c | 375,369$47,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,059.83 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…41febacked Yes | 16c | 356,136$56,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,657.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed Yes | 17c | 350,000$58,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,649.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…a64dbacked Yes | 6c | 338,194$21,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,959.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4506…43fdbacked Yes | 18c | 321,548$57,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,968.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 27c | 280,669$76,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,605.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c68…9e76backed No | 72c | 269,533$195,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,184.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 26c | 259,357$68,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,565.55 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 75c | 250,003$188,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,620.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 223,760$177,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,589.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 73c | 202,537$148,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,952.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…697bbacked Yes | 27c | 200,000$54,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,799.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 13c | 189,973$24,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,236.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 4c | 187,318$7,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,464.38 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked Yes | 25c | 177,233$43,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,828.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…253ebacked Yes | 4c | 174,668$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,461.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 24c | 164,415$40,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,061.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 11c | 155,009$16,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,465.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 24c | 154,274$36,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,515.29 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 20c | 142,685$29,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,191.71 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…29bdbacked Yes | 7c | 134,264$9,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,295.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Yes | 6c | 129,581$7,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,443.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 1c | 125,100$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 12c | 119,422$14,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,422.82 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 4c | 110,390$4,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,651.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…d498backed Yes | 22c | 104,577$22,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,816.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…b1bdbacked Yes | 26c | 104,000$26,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,569.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 23c | 100,000$23,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,099.99 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e175backed No | 77c | 99,323$76,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,134.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9d5abacked Yes | 6c | 95,151$5,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,950.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 9c | 93,510$8,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,410.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Yes | 19c | 91,543$17,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,134.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212f…7fd2backed Yes | 37c | 87,174$31,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,873.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 76c | 85,333$64,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,394.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 11c | 84,324$9,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,285.51 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…36cbbacked Yes | 20c | 83,956$16,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,877.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 10c | 81,842$8,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,356.85 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked No | 75c | 75,000$56,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,650 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 24c | 70,978$17,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,270.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…c8c1backed Yes | 9c | 70,000$6,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,237.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…e03cbacked No | 76c | 68,910$52,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,565.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 77c | 67,035$51,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,243.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 27c | 65,973$17,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,744.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 25c | 65,024$16,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,017.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…b9d6backed Yes | 5c | 64,569$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 23c | 64,184$14,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,719.72 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…40acbacked Yes | 18c | 60,882$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,199.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 12c | 60,602$7,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,154.35 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…ac21backed No | 76c | 60,005$45,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,450.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 77c | 58,917$45,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,844.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c6…73a7backed Yes | 27c | 58,286$15,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,501.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…1031backed Yes | 24c | 51,594$12,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,571.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed Yes | 27c | 50,531$13,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,669.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…2c7cbacked Yes | 10c | 50,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…ca1fbacked Yes | 25c | 49,999$12,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,277.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 77c | 43,572$33,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,930.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…eaf8backed No | 77c | 41,491$31,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 7c | 41,395$2,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 73c | 40,994$29,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,077.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 21c | 40,701$8,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,733.92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 79c | 40,390$31,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,534.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 39,386$2,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938.4 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3448…d09bbacked No | 76c | 38,608$29,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,241.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…4179backed Yes | 25c | 38,452$9,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,638.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…5705backed Yes | 25c | 37,368$9,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,287.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…f238backed Yes | 12c | 35,511$4,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,358.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 24c | 35,464$8,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,425.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 20c | 34,728$6,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,857.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 34,666$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,499.81 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 8c | 34,380$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…fb4dbacked Yes | 12c | 34,376$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 4c | 31,449$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…d3b8backed No | 74c | 30,000$22,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,680 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 23c | 27,616$6,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,436.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 3c | 27,458$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 19c | 25,213$4,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,805.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 77c | 25,063$19,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,789.61 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…c6aabacked No | 72c | 25,000$17,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed No | 73c | 25,000$18,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,674.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked Yes | 17c | 24,784$4,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,253.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…575cbacked Yes | 5c | 24,579$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 20c | 24,458$4,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,964.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 71c | 24,375$17,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,074.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbe…100abacked Yes | 20c | 24,048$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 10c | 23,756$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.68 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…8cd7backed Yes | 23c | 23,718$5,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed Yes | 25c | 22,560$5,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,628.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 16c | 22,176$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…8776backed Yes | 5c | 21,700$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 27c | 20,753$5,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,647.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed Yes | 3c | 20,477$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.