TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd52b…5c72

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
160
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT5848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.84
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$86
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$19.23
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$21.04
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$26.89
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$10.7
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$19.19
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.79
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$221.12
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$831.7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27,841Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$13,331.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134,110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$65,633.78
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,494.2
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,694Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+82.9%+$2,233.37
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.82
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.11
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.37
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,088Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+89.1%+$1,860.46
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$35.09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,365.84
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,482Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$617.42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$86.76
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT3928.2%11 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.5
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$419
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$7,133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,133
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$38.25
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$292.96
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.36
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.01
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$603.75
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.71
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$828Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$271.5
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$56.39
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.25
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$753Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$752.96
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$147
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.05
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,461Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,461.31
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.27
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.93
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.37
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.72
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,329.8
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.68
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$986Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$986.08
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$19.8
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$24.6
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$936Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$936.49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.5
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.43
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.25
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.28
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.32
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$622.94
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.69
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$240
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,334Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+42%+$981.13
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$363.28
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,612Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$1,873.91
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+155.7%+$283.02
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.86
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
All 22 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$305.12
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$22.21
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.66
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.63
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$87
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$207.94
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$15
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.53
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.68
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+54.6%+$53
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$127.5
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.28
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.78
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32,582.3
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$3,798Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,797.74
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$8,411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,410.51
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.2
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+163.4%+$60.6
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.91
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,302Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,302.11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$9,466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,465.64
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$800.68
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$869Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$869.43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$4,691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,691.07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$32.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,981Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,981.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.