Middle East · resolved market
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e6552c2fef4d4a2012a290155ef95cfd37922ef03c2b2c024d2129547dadf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $470,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $538,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 14c | 54,717$7,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,551.68 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…1733backed No | 0c | 42,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 15c | 26,975$3,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,991.89 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…539abacked No | 0c | 17,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 10,480$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.96 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa38…5493backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed No | 8c | 9,878$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 0c | 9,665$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…5e9ebacked No | 1c | 7,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 77c | 7,179$5,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.83 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 18c | 6,534$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.41 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 0c | 6,099$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 9c | 5,903$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.73 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed No | 0c | 5,535$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 18c | 5,500$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 14c | 5,496$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.42 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked No | 20c | 5,045$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b1…64d1backed No | 11c | 5,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 58c | 3,561$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.53 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 19c | 3,460$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 74c | 3,380$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.38 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 12c | 3,293$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.39 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 62c | 1,979$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 79c | 1,953$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.58 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 1,891$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.71 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 31c | 1,500$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.07 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 18c | 1,211$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 1,200$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…dc47backed No | 30c | 845.81$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 79c | 816$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 19c | 799.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 50c | 797.63$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 79c | 790$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 32c | 736.45$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 64c | 700.79$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…c367backed No | 21c | 699$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 14c | 642.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 62c | 613.93$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…f9cebacked No | 9c | 533.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…29ddbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 68c | 499.21$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.75 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed No | 30c | 449.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 436$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 9c | 420$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 60c | 419.42$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.29 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54d…ab3dbacked Yes | 73c | 413.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…d74dbacked No | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 358.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 68c | 352.41$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 339.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…16a6backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 60c | 331.75$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed No | 18c | 307$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 302.46$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 34c | 300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…b6ccbacked No | 8c | 298.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 75c | 291.26$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 290.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 29c | 285.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 29c | 279.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x923b…e08abacked No | 21c | 269.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 64c | 264.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 63c | 264.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 250$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 229.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 24c | 221.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked No | 25c | 216.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 61c | 216.48$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 215.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 17c | 208.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +208%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…04c8backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 79c | 198.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 70c | 198.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 36c | 197.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…9901backed Yes | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 70c | 184.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…317fbacked No | 59c | 168.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed No | 15c | 162.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…6eb1backed No | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…4ffebacked No | 36c | 140.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 52c | 138.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed No | 20c | 134.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 122.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?this page
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.