Middle East · resolved market
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed842de9399cf8cf28f757dcde39ba536fbeb6f8e284f2ed4079bf6c3f60261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $486,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $547,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 12c | 102,466$12,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,295.89 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 13c | 43,063$5,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,580.24 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 13c | 20,539$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.18 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 15,396$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.5 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 0c | 11,387$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 24c | 7,869$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.85 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 77c | 6,293$4,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.17 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 14c | 6,020$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.42 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 12c | 5,824$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.76 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 74c | 4,352$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.6 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 25c | 4,000$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.63 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 3,679$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 20c | 3,468$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.51 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 14c | 3,317$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.36 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…828abacked Yes | 70c | 3,250$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…1dbdbacked No | 24c | 2,259$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,838$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f3…6513backed No | 19c | 1,602$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…a535backed No | 30c | 1,593$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 72c | 1,497$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…ee59backed No | 28c | 1,443$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…c2e0backed No | 37c | 1,300$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 72c | 1,111$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 933.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 907.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 698.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 70c | 679.69$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.58 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 79c | 644.69$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 32c | 613$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…dec2backed Yes | 66c | 608.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 31c | 607.83$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 28c | 603.75$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked Yes | 72c | 600$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…ffebbacked No | 9c | 591.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 77c | 562.96$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 11c | 542.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 36c | 540.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 29c | 500.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 3c | 483$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 480.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…30d3backed Yes | 66c | 461.43$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 71c | 425$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…d92ebacked No | 15c | 420.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 68c | 409.41$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 399.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 15c | 366.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 35c | 349.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 32c | 346.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 20c | 329.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 68c | 320$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 318.5$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…f68bbacked No | 5c | 306.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a9…07f1backed No | 18c | 275.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 268.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 31c | 264.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed No | 19c | 257.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 8c | 241.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 74c | 240.11$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…f9cebacked No | 17c | 236.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 72c | 224$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed Yes | 73c | 219$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked No | 11c | 213.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 79c | 212.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 204.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc808…fffebacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…317fbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +13.6wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…d74dbacked No | 41c | 199.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked No | 29c | 194$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 74c | 191.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed No | 7c | 190.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 14c | 190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 36c | 185.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 38c | 166.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 74c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 74c | 147.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed No | 30c | 136.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…4313backed No | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…b856backed No | 24c | 130.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked No | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 79c | 130.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 20c | 119.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 114$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…5cd5backed No | 22c | 111.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…04c8backed No | 17c | 108.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed No | 27c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…a7fabacked Yes | 77c | 102.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?this page
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.