Middle East · resolved market
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de8d7b9d103366e37f3a448db8289c5c571dec5c0b9eeddbc673546d4bd9322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,219,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,250,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,219,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 713 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 0c | 1,047,038$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.39 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…8ef3backed No | 0c | 600,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d6…d103backed No | 0c | 549,291$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…a9b0backed No | 0c | 524,000$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…657ebacked No | 0c | 503,000$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2e2cbacked No | 0c | 358,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…804abacked No | 0c | 351,619$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…059bbacked No | 0c | 346,667$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…9a0bbacked No | 0c | 305,189$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…cda0backed No | 0c | 300,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 299,999$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 0c | 273,797$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…2c77backed No | 0c | 264,952$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…ea9ebacked No | 0c | 199,999$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230e…30e2backed No | 0c | 186,173$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…123dbacked No | 0c | 180,560$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 0c | 172,651$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed No | 2c | 163,313$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.43 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…d1c4backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked No | 2c | 145,151$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958.97 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…dcddbacked No | 0c | 137,333$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 1c | 129,326$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.9 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…8e2ebacked No | 0c | 127,563$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2421…bc6fbacked No | 0c | 126,627$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked No | 0c | 120,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…8144backed No | 0c | 115,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…cad8backed No | 0c | 110,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d6…900abacked No | 0c | 108,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…40efbacked No | 0c | 103,726$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…65cdbacked No | 0c | 102,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 0c | 101,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed No | 0c | 88,500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…4669backed No | 0c | 87,132$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 6c | 86,409$4,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,864.16 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…aa5dbacked No | 0c | 85,975$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c6…e060backed No | 0c | 84,878$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b6…d7adbacked No | 0c | 83,925$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56a…e70cbacked No | 0c | 81,477$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 1c | 79,246$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.97 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed No | 9c | 77,980$6,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,861.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…c144backed No | 0c | 77,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…e125backed No | 0c | 76,825$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…cfb4backed No | 0c | 75,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 73,539$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed No | 0c | 72,240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2b…1be8backed No | 0c | 70,700$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…c338backed No | 0c | 67,659$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 66,000$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.2 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 6c | 65,024$3,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,805.73 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 1c | 64,663$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.64 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 0c | 62,479$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed No | 0c | 61,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15b9…f86ebacked No | 0c | 61,500$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…82d1backed No | 0c | 60,627$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…82f0backed No | 0c | 60,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…2736backed No | 0c | 59,605$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…2f6bbacked No | 0c | 57,564$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb50…207abacked No | 0c | 57,500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…d8dcbacked No | 0c | 57,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 0c | 55,108$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked No | 0c | 53,142$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…c041backed No | 0c | 52,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…1396backed No | 0c | 51,477$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…63a0backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6661…af9fbacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…5482backed No | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…d93ebacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…39b0backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 47,640$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.19 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…22d6backed No | 0c | 46,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +742.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…c9b0backed No | 0c | 45,860$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb4…5740backed No | 0c | 45,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +623.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…4f4bbacked No | 0c | 44,333$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +645.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4190…369dbacked No | 0c | 43,772$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…633cbacked No | 1c | 43,643$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…dd8bbacked No | 0c | 41,667$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…0cf5backed No | 0c | 41,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…d51fbacked No | 0c | 39,635$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…fd58backed No | 0c | 39,122$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed No | 0c | 38,959$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…abbbbacked No | 0c | 37,667$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…3737backed No | 0c | 35,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…de5abacked No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed No | 0c | 32,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a9…07f1backed No | 0c | 31,877$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae59…849fbacked No | 0c | 31,680$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed No | 0c | 31,034$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 1c | 30,784$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633a…0e11backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…fc82backed No | 0c | 30,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 71c | 29,979$21,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,834.64 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…42d7backed No | 0c | 28,512$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 1c | 28,080$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 0c | 27,725$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed No | 0c | 26,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +946.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…77c2backed No | 0c | 26,550$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?this page
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.