Middle East · resolved market
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded808d125ee699509d849509ea099f131ed1bf639b340c7900024e5bfeb7b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 0c | 30,703$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 7c | 21,999$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.93 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 0c | 12,115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 8c | 10,995$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.77 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 11c | 6,196$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,529$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 8c | 3,963$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8360…9518backed No | 8c | 3,360$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed No | 6c | 3,333$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 9c | 2,064$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 1,683$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 19c | 1,670$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,421$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,398$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 6c | 1,278$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 5c | 1,111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 13c | 1,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 8c | 978.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 2c | 960$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 10c | 732.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 15c | 705$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 702.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 678$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 6c | 555$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed No | 9c | 501.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 15c | 467.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8875…9620backed No | 5c | 454.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…ffebbacked No | 8c | 431.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 419.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 15c | 394$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 6c | 383$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 5c | 347.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…30a3backed No | 3c | 338$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 255$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…ee59backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…acdebacked No | 4c | 247.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…b856backed Yes | 80c | 241.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 16c | 240.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 8c | 238.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 5c | 216.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked No | 14c | 208.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 7c | 193$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 28c | 188.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 183$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…089abacked No | 9c | 166.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 9c | 163.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 23c | 161.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 64c | 154.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 152$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed No | 10c | 144.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…30d3backed Yes | 79c | 141.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…a798backed Yes | 69c | 132.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 24c | 125.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed No | 20c | 124.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…828abacked Yes | 78c | 113.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…4ffebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 15c | 95.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…cdecbacked No | 36c | 68.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…e2eebacked No | 20c | 50.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…aaf7backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…5f55backed Yes | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?this page
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.