TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4b88…e2ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+86.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$5.03
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+102.6%+$20.52
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.62
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.49
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+124.4%+$37.32
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$46.92
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)backed Uzbekistan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$14.79
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+525%+$52.5
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$149.04
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
All 25 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+47.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobollibacked Karen Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$38.82
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovicsbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.47
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+90.8%+$18.16
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+416.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+416.7%+$45.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.