TailMyPicks
Market

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd0d…7ec8backed No21c22,023$4,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,629.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes70c21,772$15,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,510.8421033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes64c17,500$11,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,287.612128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No14c13,476$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.7913625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No15c9,300$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No2c8,307$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.072339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked No41c7,663$3,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,171.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No31c5,519$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.36035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No13c3,711$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked No49c3,490$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No4c3,100$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked No23c3,062$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No3c2,936$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.172030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed No11c2,815$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed No31c2,657$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked No4c2,609$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes73c2,444$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.5910361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No37c2,183$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.198332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No35c2,158$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7584723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked No1c2,020$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No51c1,999$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.991225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc082…eb9bbacked No25c1,983$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No10c1,936$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked No14c1,776$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.071154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed21…eeaebacked No5c1,600$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No9c1,408$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No11c1,333$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes69c1,251$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.14452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No46c1,161$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.5930%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfef4…29bdbacked No40c1,156$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No36c1,052$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No34c1,031$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.651625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed No7c988.93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c945.05$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2649711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x472e…b6abbacked No7c701.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed No32c700$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7789…ac9bbacked No28c679$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed No22c636.89$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.181442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No3c631$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No15c536.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.94160%0 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes71c514$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.919643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-27.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed Yes68c399.99$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.064136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb1…85b8backed No34c386.92$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed No8c384.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4513…5a38backed Yes71c353.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No33c331.03$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes63c304.69$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.895754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed No17c280.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3387…c3f7backed No48c278.75$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No10c270$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No38c255.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x569e…fdabbacked No6c246.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…7219backed No32c243.85$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No21c221.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.183732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No5c219.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911041%1 W · 103 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No8c197.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No35c193.75$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No10c180.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8518310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed No43c175.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No13c157.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8866914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No20c154.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.893023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No9c151$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9625030.8%77 W · 173 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265151%26 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed No32c132.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.791030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No34c124.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.891030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc045…95b2backed No24c110.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked No33c102.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.37922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74c1…ab9bbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes52c93.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.591060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Yes50c91.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.362050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a6…7442backed No32c89.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No31c88.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.472536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No16c81.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d03…9d52backed No32c74.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf01…5ee9backed No36c69.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7514…5dd2backed No32c60.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes57c60.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.692450%12 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5ba…5b5ebacked Yes66c59.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5449…992bbacked No22c57.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked No36c54.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb39…6ddabacked No38c52.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No22c52.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec2…9b8cbacked No39c50.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+150%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked No32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34e…bd53backed No57c42.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid+38.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No32c40.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.843644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked No34c39.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b88…e2eebacked No49c35.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa349…a150backed No43c26.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.