TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc435…2494

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
411
Categories scored
32
Categories below 50
19

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 59 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT17440.2%70 W · 104 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 174 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5)backed Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.43
Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Asschebacked Luca Van Assche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$221.14
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)backed Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+203%+$74.88
Set 2 Winner: Etcheverry vs Busebacked Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$46.34
Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Pablo Carreno Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.45
Set Handicap: Navone (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)backed Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.71
Generali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halysbacked Quentin Halys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+203%+$109.15
Set 2 Winner: Collignon vs Cerundolobacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.42
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Feldbausch (+1.5)backed Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.01
Swiss Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Kilian Feldbausch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.98
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskovabacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs Noskovabacked Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Swiss Open, Qualification: Thiago Monteiro vs Pierre-Hugues Herbertbacked Pierre-Hugues Herbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.31
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskovabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$49.04
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)backed Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.8
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)backed Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$135.25
Wimbledon WTA: Linda Noskova vs Elise Mertensbacked Elise Mertens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.41
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)backed Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.73
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmicbacked Dino Prizmic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$22.75
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baezbacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.36
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Cilic (+2.5)backed Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$47.31
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Miomir Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.43
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Agut (+2.5)backed Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$37.81
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullinbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.49
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5)backed Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+150%+$71.28
Showing 25 of 174 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT7821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$121.85
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$137
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.62
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.5
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$289.74
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$734Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+289.7%+$2,127.41
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$823.1
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.3
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,134.16
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.15
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$565.37
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+236.7%+$428.2
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+209.7%+$615.27
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+327.7%+$255.58
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$720.11
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT3852.6%20 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+33%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.82
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$158.67
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$68.44
Colombia leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.69
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$88
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.21
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$157
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.92
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.65
England leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$494.59
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+219.6%+$221.17
France leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+100%+$196.42
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.84
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.4
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$56.56
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Brazil to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$190.76
Brazil leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$68.36
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$21.55
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$79.95
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+561.9%+$136.82
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT2259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.95
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+203%+$172.54
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.48
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$271.09
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$79.85
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.38
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.69
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.65
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$20.25
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$22.67
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.3
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Mavericks vs. Cavaliersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$19.24
Pacers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.8%+$66.75
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$39
Pelicans vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+51.5%+$103.03
Pacers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinebacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+43.5%+$43.49
Knicks vs. Nuggetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+122.2%+$85.56
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+70.7%+$68.27
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: 1H Moneylinebacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+66.7%+$52.67
All 22 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$109
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.43
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.9
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.44
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+204.3%+$253.23
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 26?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.28
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.59
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.77
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.8
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$115.45
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.85
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.02
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.5
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.4
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+151.1%+$205.9
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.57
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.26
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+231.9%+$77.93
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+483.7%+$116.09
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$88
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+117.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+133.4%+$103.04
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.53
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$384.6
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.97
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+418.2%+$383.5
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.34
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+654.9%+$289.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.82
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $140M and $155M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be greater than $170M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $155M and $170M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be less than $125M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $750M and $800M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$13
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-79.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+221.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.59
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+156.8%+$45.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.94
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sharks vs. Senatorsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.5
Ducks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+438.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+438.5%+$58.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$32.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Decidersbacked Dragon Ranger Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$32.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Swedenbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+35.1%+$12.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-07-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.