IPO · resolved market
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b63be146846dbf6b13b0a003131666e20fcd8a9e0c3d8323f856a0770d2ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 23c | 811.8$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 4c | 666.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…f209backed Yes | 23c | 439.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…f132backed Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 76c | 310$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…c8d6backed No | 77c | 299.39$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…40d0backed Yes | 4c | 285.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 268.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c9…cf31backed Yes | 24c | 173.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…70c8backed Yes | 6c | 159.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…0ba8backed Yes | 24c | 114.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…f6a5backed Yes | 24c | 62.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…2956backed No | 77c | 30.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 76c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 77c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?Yes won
- Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $140M and $155M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $155M and $170M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be greater than $170M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be less than $125M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.