TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,506,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,311,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,506,024 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes0c222,000$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes0c142,805$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed Yes0c86,289$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…af3cbacked Yes1c60,891$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes0c54,564$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes46c35,413$16,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,365.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed No51c32,463$16,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,932.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc23e…1461backed No22c22,163$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,351.543630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No34c19,300$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,787.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+156.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No45c18,887$8,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,345.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+59.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes65c15,134$9,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,842.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes8c14,467$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes7c14,243$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes13c14,000$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes69c13,745$9,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,543.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe67c…5b6dbacked Yes0c13,311$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes11c12,748$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438e…e08ebacked Yes35c10,400$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,690333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b52…0db3backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2465…8905backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes2c9,929$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes1c8,952$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes71c8,805$6,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,222.913616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd6…84cdbacked Yes25c8,716$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes51c8,291$4,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,253.75450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes74c7,364$5,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,425.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-79.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed Yes43c7,022$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes30c6,619$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes12c6,567$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No20c6,560$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,261.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+424.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a5f…3fe6backed Yes55c6,283$3,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes24c6,053$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491c…8c7ebacked Yes64c5,539$3,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,521.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes4c5,299$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes49c5,149$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.13922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a88…b859backed Yes72c4,792$3,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,469.320%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No26c4,736$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+164.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes45c4,666$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.612245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes38c4,528$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes22c4,498$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No13c3,561$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.121154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+133%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed Yes47c3,205$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf97…4653backed Yes8c3,163$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes14c3,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes23c2,741$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes60c2,661$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes22c2,580$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes65c2,556$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb6f…4da4backed Yes78c2,548$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22b5…bdcabacked Yes77c2,406$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+74.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Yes6c2,393$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes72c2,386$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47d4…f594backed Yes1c2,344$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No30c2,300$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No40c2,001$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No9c1,923$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+166.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes50c1,900$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c1,706$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.461546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes46c1,667$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes31c1,664$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a7…312fbacked Yes47c1,615$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes57c1,607$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f71…9c46backed Yes67c1,580$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes77c1,511$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.6870%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1471…e9a4backed Yes18c1,443$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes70c1,373$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No29c1,351$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+279.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b8…ec46backed Yes35c1,284$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes3c1,250$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfa…f779backed Yes4c1,239$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.77425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-65.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Yes76c1,209$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c44…a66ebacked Yes12c1,204$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf072…cee7backed Yes58c1,200$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Yes3c1,197$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddbc…6965backed Yes3c1,137$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes3c1,100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes67c1,019$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…f4d1backed Yes32c1,009$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520e…0453backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed No66c1,000$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes23c1,000$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes64c949.47$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.942128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes47c904.32$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes57c899.99$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Yes68c888.84$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No53c881.54$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7509…e8b4backed Yes57c881.4$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes24c856.23$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.52175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18c5…9243backed No26c849.86$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+290.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes63c751.23$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes62c741.37$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes37c736.01$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes42c700$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde31…4f59backed No36c700$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4493100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+200.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes3c689.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes11c689.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.