TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa6ea…b02a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
162
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Stocks, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$21.42
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.24
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.73
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.04
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.64
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+337.8%+$909.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$784.4
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.27
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$469Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+577.8%+$2,709.07
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.87
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.4
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.36
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.8
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+1,251.4%+$601.9
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.17
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.69
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,073Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,072.89
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.23
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.53
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.97
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.09
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.38
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.5
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.62
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,706Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,706.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$342.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+118.2%+$48.92
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$852Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$852.39
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.51
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+104.1%+$31.49
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$41.84
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.22
Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$55.44
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.44
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Hoppers be the highest grossing movie this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.87
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 42m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.95
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,438.71
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.56
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$773.46
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+65%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+120.4%+$205.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.