Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb22a7749b831aa07a52cbc83213e6c8ceb88226b224a831512f4460011bb0a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,974,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,268,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,974,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 622 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 0c | 232,057$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 71c | 218,318$154,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,647.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c8…9ca4backed Yes | 0c | 204,333$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 0c | 97,202$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 15c | 95,515$13,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,894.69 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 91,046$5,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,442.37 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 82,552$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.91 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked Yes | 9c | 70,388$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes | 18c | 65,940$11,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,857.05 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 18c | 53,552$9,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,658.47 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9352backed Yes | 0c | 49,207$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 2c | 43,600$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.04 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 2c | 42,661$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.11 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 0c | 41,111$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…bc1ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 29,417$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.76 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 36c | 26,697$9,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,158.32 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…7441backed No | 27c | 26,514$7,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,480.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 12cpaid | +693%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 0c | 20,801$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 20,017$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.89 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 19,100$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…ea8cbacked Yes | 8c | 16,776$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 1c | 16,091$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 80c | 14,979$11,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.63 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 2c | 13,903$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 4c | 13,500$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,997.99 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 1c | 13,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 13,111$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 3c | 13,093$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.34 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 29c | 12,810$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760.3 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 12,688$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.31 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 5c | 12,104$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.89 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,468$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 2c | 10,014$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,814.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +563.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…c946backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…4574backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 3c | 8,430$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,177.56 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…d0d1backed Yes | 1c | 8,384$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +1,479.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 74c | 8,093$5,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.93 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…2e2dbacked Yes | 25c | 8,064$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 7,598$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 7c | 7,259$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.85 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 78c | 7,155$5,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.51 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 20c | 7,058$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.65 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,025$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.96 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Yes | 15c | 6,744$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 32c | 6,737$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,606.42 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…fbd7backed Yes | 1c | 6,682$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,634$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,619$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.64 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 69c | 6,387$4,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.96 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 6c | 6,214$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 2c | 6,014$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52a…864ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 6,000$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.98 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…51e0backed Yes | 45c | 6,000$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed Yes | 24c | 5,881$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,878$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,803.9 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 70c | 5,599$3,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.73 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 16c | 5,405$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,547.02 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…d2f2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 68c | 5,000$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…0bc4backed Yes | 19c | 4,927$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed Yes | 2c | 4,726$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +514.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 80c | 4,356$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.25 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed Yes | 16c | 4,245$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…9080backed Yes | 9c | 4,208$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.22 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 1c | 4,165$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.55 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,079$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.93 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 76c | 4,000$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 3,990$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.58 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 4c | 3,971$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 3,905$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.81 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 76c | 3,720$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.14 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 41c | 3,659$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 37c | 3,644$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed No | 3c | 3,600$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 16cpaid | +460.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 7c | 3,600$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 73c | 3,573$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 70c | 3,549$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.74 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 12c | 3,461$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.36 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked No | 2c | 3,457$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,378.57 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 4c | 3,362$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…32cdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,357$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 10c | 3,339$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.74 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 64c | 3,232$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.52 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,211$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 3,133$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.1 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 19c | 3,124$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed Yes | 9c | 3,089$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…132bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,025$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 2c | 2,931$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.17 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.