Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914f44e9ddd8398774b00faef3349922724b9de9e596b71aa0d0cab4a2453d37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 4c | 18,686$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.83 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 12,517$5,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,498.8 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 8,046$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 39c | 7,253$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.04 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 7,244$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 4c | 6,818$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 24c | 6,623$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 66c | 4,395$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.24 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,207$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 47c | 3,163$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.26 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 67c | 2,560$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.26 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 34c | 2,355$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.06 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,213$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.65 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…e40bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,078$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 2c | 2,076$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 26c | 1,900$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 65c | 1,856$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.1 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 1,498$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.7 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 1,422$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 25c | 1,300$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.62 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 1,133$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 78c | 1,100$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.99 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…18b3backed Yes | 14c | 1,050$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 4c | 1,024$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 2c | 980.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 16c | 922.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.56 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 35c | 890.33$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 875.06$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.88 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 28c | 851.43$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.53 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 35c | 799.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 50c | 755$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.61 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 73c | 740.51$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 79c | 673.84$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 39c | 577.29$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…8431backed Yes | 38c | 557.52$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…b488backed No | 4c | 556.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 535.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…0bb1backed Yes | 75c | 513.81$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 66c | 454.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…fb9ebacked Yes | 73c | 409.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…da32backed Yes | 74c | 405.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 79c | 400$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 19c | 371.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.52 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 55c | 324.23$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 54c | 308.69$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…4652backed No | 10c | 292.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 72c | 278.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 46c | 277.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 53c | 254.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 27c | 249.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 28c | 243.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 69c | 236.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 68c | 233.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 226.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 56c | 215.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 76c | 210.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…d96bbacked No | 5c | 207.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 6c | 203.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Yes | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…4b34backed Yes | 13c | 176.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 45c | 171.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…e7f8backed Yes | 66c | 155.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…f0e4backed Yes | 46c | 138.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked Yes | 76c | 131.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 26c | 116.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…e5b3backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 64c | 108.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…73a5backed Yes | 20c | 108.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…94bcbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…f67dbacked Yes | 23c | 106.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 34c | 96.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 68c | 93.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 65c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a746backed Yes | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…e188backed Yes | 62c | 80.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Yes | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…79d9backed Yes | 58c | 77.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 66c | 70.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 68.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 64c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…c2bcbacked Yes | 24c | 63.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 62.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 38c | 61.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 70c | 51.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 29c | 48.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.