Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd5922eed56186e904c4f327658e8c0cbd88cd854114d0906208f8b65cce6718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,647,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,276,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,647,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 432 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 2c | 117,266$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.47 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 3c | 77,284$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.36 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 4c | 61,513$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.72 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 5c | 57,840$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.69 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 56,477$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.56 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 55,667$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.01 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 7c | 55,488$3,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850.52 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 4c | 55,435$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.86 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 4c | 45,956$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.45 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 1c | 40,953$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.36 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 1c | 32,188$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +624.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 5c | 29,800$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.76 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed Yes | 5c | 28,595$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.18 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 27,514$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.92 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 26,749$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 8c | 26,388$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 3c | 25,296$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.1 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…b62cbacked Yes | 18c | 24,745$4,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,501 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 5c | 23,223$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes | 14c | 22,078$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 3c | 22,054$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.85 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 8c | 21,822$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.61 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 9c | 20,266$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.47 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…f38cbacked Yes | 4c | 18,534$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 6c | 16,736$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 3c | 15,750$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 10c | 13,969$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.06 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…610cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,619$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…70aabacked Yes | 4c | 13,317$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 4c | 12,980$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.45 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…4c93backed Yes | 5c | 11,814$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 11,561$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.37 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…774bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,232$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293f…26a1backed Yes | 4c | 11,147$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…663abacked Yes | 2c | 11,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 12c | 10,917$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.07 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 5c | 10,844$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.64 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 3c | 10,792$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.82 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cf…69e6backed Yes | 3c | 10,781$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 7c | 10,133$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.09 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,014$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 3c | 8,921$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 3c | 8,876$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…d932backed Yes | 4c | 8,827$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +409.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 5c | 8,738$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.32 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…781bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,581$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 12c | 8,482$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 4c | 8,392$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.6 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 11c | 8,272$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 5c | 8,112$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.36 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 6c | 8,092$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 6c | 8,048$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.69 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…ba27backed Yes | 14c | 7,993$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 7,873$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 2c | 7,589$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 7,233$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed Yes | 3c | 7,143$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…14c9backed Yes | 5c | 6,881$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…89cfbacked Yes | 2c | 6,520$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 6,479$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87c…0020backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 2c | 5,802$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 5c | 5,800$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 5c | 5,733$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.11 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…de75backed Yes | 12c | 5,484$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.73 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 5,139$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9347…9407backed Yes | 4c | 5,018$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…3a93backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…680dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,940$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 5c | 4,863$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…311ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,794$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 4c | 4,588$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…818cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,465$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 4,180$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.63 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 4c | 3,954$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Yes | 4c | 3,838$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 7c | 3,780$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.9 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 3c | 3,776$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.17 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 1c | 3,626$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +170%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…a35abacked Yes | 6c | 3,536$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…cbb2backed Yes | 4c | 3,487$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,399$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…743ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,340$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +193%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,265$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes | 4c | 3,100$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +563.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 3,053$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…4897backed Yes | 10c | 3,050$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 3,043$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 2,930$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 2,821$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 3c | 2,754$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.