Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2135ffcb43ba9103bb6acf7116d2d5aa98bef6d9eb3dc9c85ea00cb79513f3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,426,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,486,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,426,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,697 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes | 37c | 169,315$61,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,939.51 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 79c | 122,977$96,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,357.97 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…11d7backed Yes | 35c | 116,648$40,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,563.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…4e1ebacked Yes | 30c | 115,902$34,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,996.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 115,564$23,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,990.44 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 26c | 105,027$27,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,615.68 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 19c | 92,641$17,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,204.75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 8c | 91,695$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300.28 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 79c | 84,510$66,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,026.57 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 25c | 80,926$19,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,839.92 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 16c | 80,069$12,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,465.62 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 68c | 76,684$52,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,634.07 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 19c | 76,024$14,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,464.23 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 76c | 69,015$52,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,563.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 71c | 68,579$48,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,748.8 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 55,851$11,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,106.68 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 15c | 53,304$7,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,864.81 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 70c | 50,226$35,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,123.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 24c | 50,212$12,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,154.49 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 68c | 47,093$31,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,187.35 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 23c | 40,749$9,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,224.18 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed Yes | 18c | 39,616$7,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,090 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 18c | 39,111$6,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,875.36 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 37,720$4,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,492.12 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 75c | 36,693$27,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,119.89 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 13c | 36,453$4,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,668.58 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 16c | 32,122$5,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,121.79 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…3a93backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 25c | 28,921$7,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,236.55 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 28,413$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017.98 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 72c | 27,680$19,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,778.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 8c | 27,362$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.07 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 18c | 26,402$4,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,638.23 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 65c | 25,018$16,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,756.69 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 24c | 23,725$5,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,738.74 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 67c | 23,162$15,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,527.88 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 18c | 22,570$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,103 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 15c | 22,315$3,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.32 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…44cfbacked Yes | 8c | 22,254$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 8c | 22,000$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.44 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 2c | 21,784$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.46 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed No | 64c | 21,631$13,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,878.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 21c | 21,040$4,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,493.76 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes | 7c | 20,621$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Yes | 3c | 20,518$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 68c | 20,096$13,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 25c | 20,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 78c | 20,000$15,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,299.99 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed Yes | 30c | 20,000$5,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,949.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 9c | 19,091$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 73c | 19,062$13,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,217.45 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 16c | 18,937$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.78 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 19c | 18,648$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,568.67 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…831ebacked No | 76c | 18,188$13,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,418.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 7c | 18,160$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.36 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 34c | 17,776$6,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,121.06 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 64c | 17,500$11,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,277.3 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 14c | 17,314$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.6 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 19c | 17,223$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.9 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 78c | 15,425$12,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,347.84 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 3c | 15,180$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 18c | 15,154$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.87 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 72c | 15,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 14,909$11,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080.5 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 3c | 14,557$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…e43ebacked Yes | 12c | 14,519$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 15c | 14,308$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.59 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 22c | 13,917$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 20c | 13,787$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.74 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 78c | 13,683$10,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.84 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 17c | 13,679$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,341.82 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…0499backed Yes | 24c | 13,483$3,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,236 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 19c | 13,452$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.24 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…01c8backed Yes | 31c | 13,424$4,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,120.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 13,297$10,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.61 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 32c | 12,364$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 16c | 12,159$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.54 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 68c | 12,112$8,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,901.49 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 30c | 12,002$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 75c | 12,000$8,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,057.35 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 75c | 11,845$8,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.17 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 79c | 11,429$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.47 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 77c | 11,427$8,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.67 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 70c | 11,409$7,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.96 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 12c | 11,346$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.37 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 3c | 11,172$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed No | 66c | 11,111$7,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 4c | 11,033$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.73 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 22c | 10,886$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 19c | 10,855$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.46 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 77c | 10,743$8,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…fa07backed Yes | 11c | 10,625$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 30c | 10,593$3,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.41 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed No | 80c | 10,209$8,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 29c | 10,203$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 76c | 10,136$7,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.12 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 4c | 10,124$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.