Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf44e7b58610c8ac35b45c23846887e4efe31fda7963711e85d808647ad44d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 0c | 29,121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 21,978$10,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,266.03 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 3c | 14,415$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.02 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 39c | 14,113$5,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,655.95 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 78c | 13,210$10,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.56 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 75c | 11,981$8,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.16 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 5,436$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 3,627$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 52c | 2,564$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.47 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 62c | 2,455$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.06 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 25c | 2,231$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.39 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 75c | 2,200$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 2,009$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 8c | 1,976$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.28 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 1,945$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.3 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 13c | 1,880$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 73c | 1,872$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 43c | 1,753$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.1 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked Yes | 36c | 1,719$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.21 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 26c | 1,707$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.96 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 32c | 1,435$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.91 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 73c | 1,335$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.55 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 10c | 1,279$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 1,249$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 3c | 1,221$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 1,200$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.85 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 31c | 1,070$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.3 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked No | 76c | 1,028$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 27c | 988.96$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 55c | 976.44$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.09 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 918.64$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.61 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 847.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 4c | 843.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 4c | 801.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 800$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 74c | 800$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 25c | 751.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.46 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 74c | 739.39$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 665.16$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 26c | 626.61$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.96 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 16c | 600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 70c | 574.4$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed Yes | 24c | 559$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.84 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.1wins | +0.58per pick | 35cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 27c | 523.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 65c | 507.48$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 19c | 500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed No | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 78c | 456.41$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 26c | 455.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.34 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 33c | 453.15$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 24c | 446.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 18c | 430.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…b7afbacked Yes | 25c | 407.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 20cpaid | +280.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b01…5b36backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 26c | 381.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.58 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 29c | 348.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 68c | 320.89$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 317.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…d96bbacked No | 4c | 258.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 257.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 73c | 255.61$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.45 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 78c | 249.89$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 68c | 242.65$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 50c | 234.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Yes | 35c | 230.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 48c | 225.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Yes | 54c | 219.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 60c | 205.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…73a5backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 196.63$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 44c | 193$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 190.89$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 31c | 185.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…94bbbacked Yes | 30c | 173.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 26c | 148.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…96f0backed No | 69c | 143.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeffe…5efabacked No | 64c | 143.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 75c | 136.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked No | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 28c | 129.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 111.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 57c | 108$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 31c | 100.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.