Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a7c8afb7a0e09b8b47643171d90f400de23a176c4ea06f6552d6e53213839c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,867,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,964,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,867,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 12,616 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked No | 78c | 118,490$92,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,692.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…1077backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a9…9e97backed No | 0c | 73,158$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 22c | 66,109$14,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,846.23 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 36c | 63,141$22,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,600.22 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked No | 0c | 59,950$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 44c | 57,881$25,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,132.34 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked No | 65c | 57,307$37,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,138.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…9958backed No | 0c | 54,766$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cf…e7ddbacked No | 0c | 51,505$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af8…a9f5backed No | 0c | 51,340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 51c | 46,125$23,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,825.01 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 45c | 44,037$19,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,800.67 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…00d0backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 12c | 39,640$4,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,689.75 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 23c | 37,411$8,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,902.21 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 67c | 35,581$23,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,826.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 66c | 32,205$21,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,235.86 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 58c | 31,605$18,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,403.01 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 34c | 30,586$10,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,247.44 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…b31cbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 0c | 30,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…4caabacked Yes | 52c | 27,560$14,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,361.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked Yes | 23c | 25,984$5,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,062.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…e058backed Yes | 31c | 23,108$7,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,057.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…0f2bbacked No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 56c | 21,752$12,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,571.42 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 18c | 21,571$3,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,936.56 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 20c | 21,205$4,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,964.23 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 75c | 20,353$15,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,162.37 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb516…77edbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed Yes | 42c | 18,881$7,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,882.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 31c | 18,749$5,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,864.12 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 18,317$12,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,565.05 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 36c | 17,705$6,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.91 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…bbd7backed No | 0c | 17,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 54c | 16,749$8,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,966 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked Yes | 26c | 16,175$4,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,962.26 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 34c | 15,934$5,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,494.6 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 15,787$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…4574backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 51c | 14,764$7,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,509.66 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…4acebacked No | 21c | 13,902$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 39c | 13,250$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130.18 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 73c | 12,909$9,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,463.08 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 12,342$7,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,622.52 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 42c | 11,764$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.66 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 73c | 11,488$8,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,397.99 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked No | 43c | 11,159$4,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,771.07 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 38c | 10,833$4,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,674.24 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 53c | 10,780$5,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038.19 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed No | 4c | 10,690$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 45c | 10,641$4,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,813.16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 44c | 10,627$4,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,955.84 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 2c | 10,465$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.86 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed No | 0c | 10,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…1388backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f857backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 50c | 9,729$4,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,826.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 10c | 9,685$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.7 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 52c | 9,394$4,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.34 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 56c | 9,278$5,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,163.07 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 72c | 9,230$6,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,611.69 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 52c | 9,000$4,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,351 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 28c | 8,948$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,410.52 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…84aabacked No | 0c | 8,833$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 61c | 8,472$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304.21 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Yes | 53c | 8,268$4,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,870.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 60c | 8,268$4,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.19 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 56c | 8,251$4,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.33 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 66c | 7,901$5,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,202.13 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Yes | 55c | 7,397$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,309.73 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…c288backed Yes | 55c | 7,321$4,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…d14bbacked No | 75c | 7,317$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,503 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 20c | 7,074$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,667.58 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 43c | 7,041$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,042.74 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 1c | 7,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…da11backed Yes | 38c | 6,900$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,297.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85d…faeabacked Yes | 22c | 6,861$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 6,830$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 67c | 6,563$4,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,373.34 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 25c | 6,292$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.28 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…d959backed Yes | 33c | 6,215$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,175.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed No | 3c | 5,963$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 6c | 5,945$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.61 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 71c | 5,915$4,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,172.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 5,822$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.57 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…a420backed No | 0c | 5,762$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 26c | 5,730$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,221.22 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 50c | 5,709$2,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 60c | 5,698$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.06 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 5,641$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,875.8 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 3c | 5,600$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.62 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 25c | 5,518$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,145 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…c554backed Yes | 55c | 5,503$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…ab31backed Yes | 19c | 5,500$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,460.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +339%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 38c | 5,431$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.04 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.