TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,863,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,574,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,863,884 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 989 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No0c199,000$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.52722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No0c121,464$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.395726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+62%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef14…c335backed Yes77c101,594$77,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,614.98650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+116.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33a9…9e97backed No0c101,000$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e6…71d2backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+1,727%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fa…ba27backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+566.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f3…9e3abacked No0c99,889$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+161%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c94…00d0backed No0c88,192$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa585…8875backed No0c87,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd640…480cbacked No0c67,699$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.74040%16 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes29c59,014$16,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,090.3914821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c55,735$34,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,470.3264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No0c54,678$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.882360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95cf…e7ddbacked No0c53,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9352backed No3c51,568$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5856…3165backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9b…399cbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+139.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe877…8decbacked No0c48,288$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9152…b04bbacked No0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+114.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27fd…9187backed No0c39,549$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14be…84aabacked No0c38,133$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No19c37,769$7,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,252.3430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x763e…586ebacked No0c31,252$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked No0c30,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f4…4021backed No0c30,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb516…77edbacked No0c30,090$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+196.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes23c30,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,099.964825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b56…715ebacked No0c29,539$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.542263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af8…a9f5backed No0c28,854$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes19c25,930$4,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,068.364143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No77c25,542$19,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,789.8235347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cab…abe1backed No0c22,891$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.892524%6 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1596…0f2bbacked No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes40c21,711$8,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,127.7316831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b02…e5fcbacked No0c21,700$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426013.3%8 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c20,496$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes24c20,059$4,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,342.4811527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e7…06c1backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d21…d15ebacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…3118backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb3…c6fdbacked No0c19,922$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed No14c19,184$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51de…9e4abacked Yes20c18,991$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,135.583234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55bd…6522backed No0c17,645$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.29922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick3cpaid+669.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes15c17,129$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,605.8421521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No44c16,986$7,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,436.3235921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee94…7840backed No0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No11c15,819$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.3615629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed No0c15,105$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.976631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e26…6db6backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b9…5b1abacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f93…7441backed No1c14,802$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.46475%3 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.63per pick12cpaid+693%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No74c14,686$10,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,879.9916638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed Yes33c14,364$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,663.952766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes23c14,280$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,949.755034%17 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes35c14,037$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,168.0335631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afb…d23dbacked No0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f71…4e83backed No18c13,526$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.471822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked No1c13,484$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.885416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No80c13,127$10,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4495954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5372…4b1fbacked No80c13,106$10,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,477.621050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed No78c12,828$10,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,008.051662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…13a7backed Yes67c12,484$8,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.021450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked No79c12,213$9,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,634.442429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No23c12,098$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,786.795749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No56c11,627$6,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,544.455466.7%36 W · 18 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x176a…e946backed No0c11,520$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes12c11,295$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,930.7320823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfae…9dedbacked No0c11,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12205%1 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+108.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No69c10,764$7,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,389.67462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53e…93e6backed No0c10,710$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+215.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No65c10,589$6,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,862.859051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No63c10,549$6,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,631.834645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b8…db31backed No80c10,518$8,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,363.41650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47d1…a3c0backed No0c10,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No64c10,121$6,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4415650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1e…1e21backed No1c10,112$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+74.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+428.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd331…3cf5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+630.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c6c…9a9dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ba…0a6bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…11bbbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x359e…194fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5e…3769backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5b…1cf2backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f22…de0bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106346%29 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d6…1388backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c94…551cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa602…1104backed No0c10,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…5d6fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6717…0ab9backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe137…9716backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83b…3714backed Yes9c9,694$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,835.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+232.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cc…882cbacked Yes65c9,554$6,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.151127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+129.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes14c9,492$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,167.255145.1%23 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9925…b83fbacked No6c9,073$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.