Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9933a54c518e773050255ea9dba01a71e1a41f49311ed078ae4a6f7e76b1625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,863,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,574,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,863,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 989 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 0c | 199,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 121,464$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…c335backed Yes | 77c | 101,594$77,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,614.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a9…9e97backed No | 0c | 101,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…71d2backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +1,727%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…ba27backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…9e3abacked No | 0c | 99,889$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +161%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…00d0backed No | 0c | 88,192$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…8875backed No | 0c | 87,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked No | 0c | 67,699$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 29c | 59,014$16,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,090.39 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 55,735$34,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,470.32 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 0c | 54,678$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cf…e7ddbacked No | 0c | 53,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9352backed No | 3c | 51,568$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5856…3165backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…399cbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…8decbacked No | 0c | 48,288$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…b04bbacked No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…9187backed No | 0c | 39,549$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…84aabacked No | 0c | 38,133$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 37,769$7,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,252.34 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x763e…586ebacked No | 0c | 31,252$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked No | 0c | 30,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…4021backed No | 0c | 30,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb516…77edbacked No | 0c | 30,090$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 23c | 30,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,099.96 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 0c | 29,539$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af8…a9f5backed No | 0c | 28,854$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 19c | 25,930$4,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,068.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 25,542$19,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,789.82 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed No | 0c | 22,891$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…0f2bbacked No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 40c | 21,711$8,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,127.73 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked No | 0c | 21,700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 20,496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 24c | 20,059$4,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,342.48 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d21…d15ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…3118backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…c6fdbacked No | 0c | 19,922$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 14c | 19,184$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 20c | 18,991$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,135.58 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…6522backed No | 0c | 17,645$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 3cpaid | +669.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 15c | 17,129$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,605.84 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 44c | 16,986$7,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,436.32 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee94…7840backed No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 11c | 15,819$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.36 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 0c | 15,105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…6db6backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b9…5b1abacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…7441backed No | 1c | 14,802$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 12cpaid | +693%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 74c | 14,686$10,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,879.99 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed Yes | 33c | 14,364$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,663.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 23c | 14,280$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,949.75 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 35c | 14,037$4,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,168.03 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…d23dbacked No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 18c | 13,526$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked No | 1c | 13,484$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 80c | 13,127$10,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,449 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked No | 80c | 13,106$10,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,477.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 78c | 12,828$10,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,008.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…13a7backed Yes | 67c | 12,484$8,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,114.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked No | 79c | 12,213$9,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,634.44 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 23c | 12,098$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.79 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 11,627$6,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,544.45 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…e946backed No | 0c | 11,520$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 11,295$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,930.73 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked No | 0c | 11,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 69c | 10,764$7,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,389.6 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed No | 0c | 10,710$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 65c | 10,589$6,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,862.85 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 63c | 10,549$6,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,631.83 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…db31backed No | 80c | 10,518$8,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,363.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed No | 0c | 10,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 64c | 10,121$6,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,441 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…1e21backed No | 1c | 10,112$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…3cf5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +630.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9a9dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…0a6bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…11bbbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359e…194fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…3769backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…1cf2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…de0bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…1388backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…551cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa602…1104backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…5d6fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…0ab9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe137…9716backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…3714backed Yes | 9c | 9,694$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,835.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +232.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…882cbacked Yes | 65c | 9,554$6,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,386.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 14c | 9,492$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,167.25 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…b83fbacked No | 6c | 9,073$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.