Middle East · resolved market
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,565,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,573,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,565,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 6,263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 5c | 338,595$17,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,960.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 35c | 275,190$95,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,566.65 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 65c | 194,217$125,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,460.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 67c | 182,744$122,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,731.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 181,524$126,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,286.46 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 152,483$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.63 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 73c | 129,361$94,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,450.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 38c | 97,858$37,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,581.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 33c | 97,694$32,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,565 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes | 33c | 90,515$29,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,869.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 11c | 84,304$9,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,590.68 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 68c | 82,931$56,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,205.87 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…38afbacked Yes | 37c | 81,093$29,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,793.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 69c | 67,203$46,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,813.68 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 62c | 58,134$36,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,101.78 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 60c | 51,682$31,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,454.66 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 71c | 51,310$36,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,088.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 68c | 50,201$34,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,815.58 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 42c | 49,219$20,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,843.23 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 27c | 48,916$13,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,419.93 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes | 40c | 48,398$19,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,361.65 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 44c | 47,526$20,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,905.58 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 32c | 46,201$14,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,643.66 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 72c | 45,299$32,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,667.37 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 31c | 45,052$13,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,868.6 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 21c | 43,510$9,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,072.94 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 32c | 42,016$13,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,502.71 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 62c | 38,567$23,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,780.65 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 68c | 38,196$25,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,412.1 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed No | 71c | 36,039$25,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,545.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 65c | 35,683$23,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,493.85 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 35c | 35,547$12,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,486.76 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked No | 67c | 34,421$23,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,307.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 67c | 34,325$23,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,268.43 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed Yes | 38c | 32,607$12,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,321.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 69c | 31,421$21,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,790.77 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 28,603$6,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,093.16 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 59c | 28,087$16,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,522.65 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 67c | 27,908$18,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,214.43 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 63c | 27,584$17,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,183.76 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…3e72backed No | 61c | 27,480$16,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,723.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 71c | 26,127$18,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,701.92 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 65c | 25,882$16,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,059.55 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 40c | 25,661$10,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,152.08 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked Yes | 38c | 25,200$9,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,680 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 45c | 25,038$11,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,144.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 1c | 22,779$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,642.47 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…a21dbacked No | 38c | 22,378$8,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,827.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 44c | 22,166$9,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,822.68 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 28c | 21,729$6,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,141.82 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 37c | 21,663$7,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,949.39 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 60c | 21,245$12,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,404.58 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed No | 67c | 20,762$13,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,863.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 64c | 20,081$12,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,243.95 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 57c | 20,000$11,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,649.73 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 61c | 20,000$12,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,799.98 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 27c | 18,333$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 21c | 18,187$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,852.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 58c | 17,909$10,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,439.02 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 34c | 17,572$5,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,902.82 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 69c | 17,394$12,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,329.05 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…c288backed Yes | 38c | 17,336$6,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,507.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 71c | 17,292$12,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,064.76 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 37c | 17,173$6,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,342.35 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 76c | 17,017$12,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.38 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 9c | 17,001$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.33 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 79c | 16,912$13,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,532.93 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes | 26c | 16,871$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 75c | 16,810$12,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,204.95 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 50c | 16,584$8,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,262.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 41c | 16,497$6,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,816.47 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 65c | 16,021$10,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,679.76 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 52c | 15,784$8,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,645.07 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked Yes | 30c | 14,912$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 54c | 13,965$7,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,369.41 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 42c | 13,821$5,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,797 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 8c | 13,741$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.05 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 59c | 13,452$8,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,451.25 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 60c | 13,412$8,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,106.5 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 13,351$9,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.57 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 57c | 13,235$7,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,723.04 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 13,093$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.89 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…343abacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…4acebacked No | 63c | 12,927$8,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,822.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 61c | 12,800$7,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,005.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 69c | 12,459$8,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.61 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 12,457$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.17 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes | 33c | 12,290$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,102.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 65c | 12,282$8,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.59 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 75c | 12,187$9,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,006.04 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…b62cbacked Yes | 31c | 12,118$3,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 61c | 12,080$7,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,739.27 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 60c | 12,000$7,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,820 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 37c | 12,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.96 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed No | 64c | 11,966$7,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.7 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 6c | 11,637$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.96 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 11,501$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.43 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 64c | 11,350$7,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,037.26 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 38c | 11,341$4,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,321 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 36c | 11,319$4,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.45 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?this page
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 6?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 7?No won
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.