TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,565,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,573,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,565,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0681…f713backed Yes5c338,595$17,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,960.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes35c275,190$95,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,566.6514821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed No65c194,217$125,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,460.011662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No67c182,744$122,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,731.051723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c181,524$126,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,286.4664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c152,483$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.6343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed No73c129,361$94,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,450.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes38c97,858$37,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,581.93764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed Yes33c97,694$32,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,5654959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes33c90,515$29,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,869.951145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes11c84,304$9,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,590.685145.1%23 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No68c82,931$56,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,205.877462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15b…38afbacked Yes37c81,093$29,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,793.33825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No69c67,203$46,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,813.6835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No62c58,134$36,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,101.7812650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No60c51,682$31,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,454.6635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No71c51,310$36,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,088.481353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No68c50,201$34,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,815.588749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes42c49,219$20,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,843.238125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes27c48,916$13,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,419.933315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes40c48,398$19,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,361.653818.4%7 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes44c47,526$20,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,905.5819531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes32c46,201$14,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,643.6614228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No72c45,299$32,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,667.3713850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes31c45,052$13,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,868.616831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes21c43,510$9,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,072.944825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes32c42,016$13,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,502.715038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed No62c38,567$23,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,780.656653%35 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a5…caaabacked No68c38,196$25,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,412.122100%22 W · 0 L+6.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb8a7…7674backed No71c36,039$25,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,545.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No65c35,683$23,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,493.8516638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes35c35,547$12,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,486.7631241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked No67c34,421$23,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,307.32429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No67c34,325$23,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,268.435532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf9c1…39e2backed Yes38c32,607$12,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,321.961650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No69c31,421$21,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,790.774341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c28,603$6,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,093.1635921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No59c28,087$16,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,522.656262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No67c27,908$18,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,214.4316553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked No63c27,584$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,183.766349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ab…3e72backed No61c27,480$16,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,723.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked No71c26,127$18,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,701.926459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No65c25,882$16,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,059.556956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes40c25,661$10,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,152.0810528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0f…f0adbacked Yes38c25,200$9,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6801127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf60…47cebacked Yes45c25,038$11,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,144.012425%6 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked No1c22,779$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,642.471128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b33…a21dbacked No38c22,378$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,827.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc43…1540backed Yes44c22,166$9,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,822.683467.6%23 W · 11 L+8.8wins+0.26per pick42cpaid+108.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes28c21,729$6,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,141.823040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes37c21,663$7,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,949.3922529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed No60c21,245$12,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,404.588633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed No67c20,762$13,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,863.693551.4%18 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No64c20,081$12,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,243.9534143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No57c20,000$11,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,649.7322333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No61c20,000$12,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.984360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes27c18,333$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9502231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes21c18,187$3,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,852.631631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+127.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No58c17,909$10,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,439.0238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes34c17,572$5,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,902.8220549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No69c17,394$12,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,329.058359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x556c…c288backed Yes38c17,336$6,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,507.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2974…9c23backed No71c17,292$12,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,064.763562.9%22 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes37c17,173$6,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,342.3515230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed No76c17,017$12,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,039.386755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes9c17,001$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.3313617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No79c16,912$13,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,532.935848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes26c16,871$4,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,420.613151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No75c16,810$12,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,204.9519648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No50c16,584$8,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,262.914057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes41c16,497$6,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,816.478937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No65c16,021$10,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,679.767542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No52c15,784$8,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,645.0728126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ae…809abacked Yes30c14,912$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5003348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No54c13,965$7,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,369.419051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa284…49edbacked Yes42c13,821$5,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7972339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes8c13,741$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.0522227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No59c13,452$8,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,451.2542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes60c13,412$8,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,106.528427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No72c13,351$9,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,801.5721726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No57c13,235$7,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,723.0428734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c13,093$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,574.8989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c78…343abacked Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830e…4acebacked No63c12,927$8,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.951764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No61c12,800$7,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,005.994738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No69c12,459$8,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,884.615650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes14c12,457$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.1717530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes33c12,290$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.722352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No65c12,282$8,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,249.5920336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No75c12,187$9,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,006.045954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72df…b62cbacked Yes31c12,118$3,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7371216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No61c12,080$7,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,739.2717247.7%82 W · 90 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No60c12,000$7,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8202748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x746f…566dbacked Yes37c12,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.963748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x606f…1083backed No64c11,966$7,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,331.75646.4%26 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes6c11,637$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.965010%5 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-81.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes3c11,501$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.438514.1%12 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No64c11,350$7,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,037.2628750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes38c11,341$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3213240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes36c11,319$4,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,130.4520749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.