TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x67d0…db7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
171
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT13617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 136 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$236.6
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$361.74
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.1
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.24
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$7,641Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,640.77
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.31
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$931Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$931.41
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,461.69
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.96
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+409.1%+$859.35
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$419.99
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.46
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.96
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.74
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.4
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,109.46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$8,198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,198.09
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$866Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$865.73
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$5,058Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,057.98
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,836Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,836.4
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+4,258.9%+$9,523.06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$6,043Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+642.6%+$38,835.1
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.6
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,215.88
Showing 25 of 136 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.48
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$296.1
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.28
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$280.02
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$177.19
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.19
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$25.83
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$63.02
Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 1.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.39
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Wizards vs. Celticsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.1
Team World vs. Team USA Stripesbacked Team World · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripesbacked Team USA Stripes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+210.6%+$113.91
Will the USA Stripes team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$15.84
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,690Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+144.2%+$2,435.81
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$3,225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,224.93
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.68
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,922Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,922.09
All 4 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+133%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.7
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$33.09
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.