Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,250,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,110,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,250,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,658 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4662…bdf6backed No | 0c | 26,744,228$39,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,904.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 18,420,242$18,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,420.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…e7dabacked No | 0c | 10,267,124$10,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,566 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…2ee7backed No | 0c | 6,074,276$6,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,074.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…cc08backed No | 1c | 5,372,863$39,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,883 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88a…94c5backed No | 0c | 4,400,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 0c | 4,272,791$4,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,272.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…e90fbacked No | 0c | 3,770,098$4,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…4ee9backed No | 0c | 2,222,000$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3748…ef32backed No | 0c | 2,004,000$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…bb28backed No | 0c | 1,869,350$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f78…c406backed No | 0c | 1,310,000$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 3c | 1,155,177$31,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,524.09 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 0c | 1,139,530$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…c0bfbacked No | 0c | 1,100,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…fd99backed No | 0c | 1,097,000$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2446…261bbacked No | 0c | 1,007,000$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…cd50backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81cc…364dbacked No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…5adcbacked No | 0c | 997,000$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…1d9abacked No | 0c | 997,000$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 2c | 724,312$13,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,668.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…c5e2backed No | 0c | 516,000$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…e178backed No | 0c | 509,360$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…3373backed No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f9…7eefbacked No | 0c | 491,260$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 485,210$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 480,233$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a9…92fabacked No | 0c | 417,000$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17c…88b2backed No | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 393,322$41,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352,096.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked No | 0c | 389,660$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked Yes | 7c | 372,800$24,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348,266.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 11cpaid | +739.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…3c0cbacked No | 0c | 349,760$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…2c19backed No | 0c | 346,000$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 1c | 343,508$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 0c | 332,615$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…100ebacked No | 0c | 323,375$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…cb22backed No | 0c | 320,940$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…1cb4backed No | 0c | 305,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…30acbacked No | 0c | 303,000$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…d448backed No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a0…5d7dbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…fd1ebacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…b988backed No | 0c | 299,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…37a2backed No | 0c | 287,000$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 8c | 286,333$22,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263,957.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +239.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…7736backed No | 0c | 261,910$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b24…11f9backed No | 0c | 257,000$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0440backed No | 0c | 249,000$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 9c | 247,845$21,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,475.92 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…a337backed No | 0c | 225,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…5418backed No | 0c | 222,222$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 204,725$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f66…5828backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…5410backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffaa…7819backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…3610backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597c…27acbacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ddd9backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa531…58e8backed No | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee2…91afbacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…6af9backed No | 0c | 199,500$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…d214backed No | 0c | 199,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…75a2backed No | 0c | 199,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5162…c789backed No | 0c | 197,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…4ce5backed No | 0c | 190,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…7d98backed No | 0c | 187,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 6c | 185,829$11,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174,079.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 1c | 182,226$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 0c | 175,470$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…758abacked No | 0c | 171,666$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…d03cbacked No | 0c | 165,550$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…1721backed No | 0c | 164,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 5c | 161,619$8,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153,404.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…beb8backed No | 0c | 161,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…085cbacked No | 0c | 161,000$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…1198backed No | 0c | 160,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd534…04f2backed No | 0c | 159,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…07cfbacked No | 0c | 154,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…37cfbacked No | 0c | 153,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e86…90b8backed No | 0c | 151,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…a4cebacked No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…77ccbacked No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…1a3cbacked No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…368cbacked No | 0c | 149,833$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…21adbacked No | 0c | 145,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…109ebacked No | 0c | 144,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…61acbacked No | 0c | 143,258$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08d…b835backed No | 0c | 140,700$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a8…2725backed No | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c0…2ef8backed No | 0c | 137,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e2…13c3backed Yes | 7c | 136,217$10,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,161.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,254.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…4a98backed No | 0c | 135,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…4768backed No | 0c | 129,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked No | 0c | 128,600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…17f7backed No | 0c | 120,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc2…de66backed No | 0c | 119,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…a20abacked No | 0c | 116,033$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.