TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7ee7…17b0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 51 out of 100; worst Commodities at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$517.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$73.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.8
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,195.99
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,865Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,864.67
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.79
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$957Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+310.4%+$2,971.65
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$594.33
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$456.36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,215Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+174.3%+$5,604.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.33
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$6,699Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,698.88
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$5,668Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,668.04
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$6,543Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,543.24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,566Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$788.08
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.63
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$7,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,024.97
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$2,618.58
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$557.15
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.97
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,427Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$1,622.66
Will Putin visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,225.61
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,265Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$7,768.72
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$8,301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,301.32
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,609Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,608.69
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$310
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$853Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$853.17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$340
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,945Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,945.03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,913Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,913.05
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$370
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,135.34
All 9 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.