Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5885e29e8328639acaddcda1ad40975222744bed8b858387bcee2f1c3976aa3f

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $161,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $164,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,885 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd04…fbb0backed No	2c	21,339$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.7	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe1c…02bbbacked No	49c	10,179$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-48%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked No	4c	7,272$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.22	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No	2c	7,200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	57c	6,400$3,632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,632	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	60c	5,650$3,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,239.95	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	48c	5,129$2,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,677.92	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes	54c	4,444$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,044.24	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	49c	4,431$2,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,280.77	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	56c	4,211$2,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,859.69	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes	36c	4,000$1,426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,573.96	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	25c	3,607$919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.76	197	39.1%77 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No	59c	3,524$2,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,072.81	155	41.9%65 W · 90 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No	39c	3,500$1,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,370	156	29.5%46 W · 110 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f23…2124backed No	58c	3,472$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No	1c	3,300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e7…9561backed No	65c	2,769$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No	48c	2,422$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.39	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	54c	2,350$1,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,070	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5124…598ebacked Yes	53c	2,165$1,148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,017.77	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+76.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes	59c	2,060$1,218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$842.19	161	31.7%51 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d8…c364backed No	46c	1,785$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes	42c	1,750$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,009.36	409	39.6%162 W · 247 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No	57c	1,702$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$961.8	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No	1c	1,360$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	266	19.2%51 W · 215 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No	1c	1,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Yes	53c	1,164$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.61	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.34per pick	37cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa069…1e59backed No	44c	1,124$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes	51c	1,108$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.77	202	39.1%79 W · 123 L	+20.4wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2fab…d73cbacked No	49c	1,023$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-5.3wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No	48c	923.33$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.52	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-9.9wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No	3c	893.46$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	17c	799.98$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc881…b071backed Yes	55c	765.8$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.82	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed Yes	63c	700$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.1	90	54.4%49 W · 41 L	+8.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1008…5700backed No	57c	666.94$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	52cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x923b…e08abacked No	52c	605.44$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.77	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-5.1wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a64…e470backed No	66c	591.11$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	31c	547.12$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.18	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No	46c	500$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.34	162	31.5%51 W · 111 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	126	38.1%48 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	41c	449.66$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.51	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	34c	444.18$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.15	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No	56c	437.23$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.19	229	27.1%62 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-43%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba1f…4258backed Yes	61c	382.71$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.34	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	51c	381$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.54	124	32.3%40 W · 84 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes	43c	347.08$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.03	186	39.8%74 W · 112 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes	59c	344.04$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.04	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes	49c	308.42$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.42	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes	55c	297.5$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.5	60	60%36 W · 24 L	+7.5wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45b3…c90bbacked No	60c	286.41$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.84	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	47c	278.79$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.67	360	35.3%127 W · 233 L	-30.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No	45c	267.03$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.18	80	45%36 W · 44 L	+6.0wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed No	66c	266.67$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.6	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x05f4…66f6backed No	48c	266.32$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.7	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+73.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	54c	257$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.76	181	35.9%65 W · 116 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x665e…ea7ebacked Yes	46c	250$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+4.3wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+31%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e9e…b594backed No	41c	245.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b81…1210backed No	41c	242.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.63	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-9.0wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes	43c	241$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.29	114	32.5%37 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No	57c	239.95$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.48	89	29.2%26 W · 63 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes	42c	238.11$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.11	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+3.9wins	+0.12per pick	37cpaid	+24%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	40c	238.08$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.31	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	7c	238$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No	14c	231.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.87	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	+11.5wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No	8c	223.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	122	23%28 W · 94 L	+12.1wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes	46c	215$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.61	183	38.3%70 W · 113 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	44c	201.39$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.63	217	26.7%58 W · 159 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda63…4378backed No	50c	200.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81d6…91afbacked No	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4aa…51dfbacked No	54c	200$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x560d…af7cbacked Yes	41c	200$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No	65c	200$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-11.4wins	-0.20per pick	67cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43eb…f17fbacked No	51c	194.13$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.01	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	43c	177.31$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.19	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	29c	164.21$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.59	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed No	28c	160$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb84…8bbdbacked Yes	58c	152.25$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.59	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes	47c	150.69$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.21	186	40.9%76 W · 110 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes	44c	150$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes	65c	150$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed24…3b45backed Yes	52c	144$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No	52c	137.15$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.91	90	31.1%28 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No	46c	131.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.25	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-7.4wins	-0.13per pick	45cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xabca…073bbacked No	41c	130.28$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	48c	128$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.44	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b73…2562backed Yes	62c	120.97$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.97	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+5.8wins	+0.39per pick	41cpaid	+111.8%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes	57c	119.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.5	126	29.4%37 W · 89 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed Yes	57c	119.17$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.61	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+9.7wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	46c	117.66$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.04	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No	44c	114.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No	59c	102.5$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+16.6wins	+0.16per pick	43cpaid	+48%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	172	47.7%82 W · 90 L	-12.6wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c6c…057dbacked Yes	50c	100.77$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.77	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+7.6wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdc8f…bc5cbacked No	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	253	39.5%100 W · 153 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes	63c	100$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.4	78	64.1%50 W · 28 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	39c	96.27$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.21	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event