Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531afb8dafa0c026464827a4d6c4260743f6d2908101ae43645d6513e6bc5438
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $811,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $737,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $811,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 5c | 36,817$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.39 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…ae28backed Yes | 12c | 31,750$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 14c | 21,803$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.25 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 5c | 17,229$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.16 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 0c | 15,460$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 15,151$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.1 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…cf02backed Yes | 6c | 10,854$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 14c | 9,999$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.61 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…df3fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,426$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 10c | 7,531$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,032$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 14c | 5,799$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 16c | 5,500$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.44 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93a…11c2backed Yes | 3c | 4,497$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 11c | 4,466$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…90bebacked Yes | 4c | 4,460$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…ee8abacked Yes | 10c | 4,170$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd842…538bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,156$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,074$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…0bdcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,862$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,853$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 19cpaid | +239%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…ed4fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,852$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 11c | 3,576$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…0979backed Yes | 12c | 3,383$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,317$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 7c | 3,201$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,071$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 7c | 3,039$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7995…55d6backed Yes | 5c | 2,908$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,670$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf169…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,644$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,625$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d4…cf3cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,461$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,410$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 8c | 2,329$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 11c | 2,327$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…bf72backed Yes | 6c | 2,297$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 2,294$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…e017backed Yes | 3c | 2,244$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4877…5c7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,244$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f5…b0d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,230$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…ccc8backed Yes | 3c | 2,230$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,217$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,154$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…1155backed Yes | 3c | 2,113$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…5368backed Yes | 3c | 2,113$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…39e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,931$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…1f81backed Yes | 3c | 1,931$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…6455backed Yes | 3c | 1,834$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,801$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 44c | 1,800$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.8 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 4c | 1,726$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes | 5c | 1,702$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95af…49adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,632$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,580$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 5c | 1,486$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,433$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc583…2ffbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,411$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 1,396$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…7a27backed Yes | 6c | 1,372$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9606…1205backed Yes | 5c | 1,363$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…1fc6backed Yes | 7c | 1,322$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…5c62backed Yes | 7c | 1,322$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…0d86backed Yes | 6c | 1,307$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…3d13backed Yes | 3c | 1,282$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…98c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,206$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299b…d159backed Yes | 3c | 1,179$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea1…a57ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,146$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…a56fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df9…e796backed Yes | 4c | 1,102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…ce60backed Yes | 4c | 1,098$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…7c66backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…a292backed Yes | 6c | 1,088$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 1,082$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,055$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…b6a5backed Yes | 7c | 1,052$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318d…74febacked Yes | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,004$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 999.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e48…7239backed Yes | 3c | 998$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 973$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd64a…1ab6backed Yes | 4c | 958$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 900$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…4bb1backed Yes | 4c | 876$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…05c8backed Yes | 8c | 849.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes | 13c | 846.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…8179backed Yes | 12c | 816.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 773.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 4c | 743.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 46c | 723.3$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.32 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…7c03backed Yes | 12c | 707.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.