TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$811,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$737,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $811,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes5c36,817$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.3921531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac87…ae28backed Yes12c31,750$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.21136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes14c21,803$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.2511038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes5c17,229$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.1613617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5695…1247backed Yes0c15,460$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes5c15,151$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.128734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes0c11,550$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.153630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8c…cf02backed Yes6c10,854$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.11118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes6c10,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56026429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes14c9,999$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.6115230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8785…df3fbacked Yes1c8,426$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.521711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2222…f221backed Yes10c7,531$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.54626.1%12 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c6,032$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.65071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes14c5,799$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes16c5,500$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.4418738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb93a…11c2backed Yes3c4,497$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes11c4,466$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.88714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+224.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b10…90bebacked Yes4c4,460$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+45.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9eb…ee8abacked Yes10c4,170$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.83742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd842…538bbacked Yes3c4,156$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c4,074$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.683717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc59…0bdcbacked Yes3c3,862$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes4c3,853$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.21145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick19cpaid+239%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a44…ed4fbacked Yes10c3,852$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.181010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes11c3,576$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1b…0979backed Yes12c3,383$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c3,317$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.567135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes7c3,201$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes6c3,071$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.345843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes7c3,039$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22511527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7995…55d6backed Yes5c2,908$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.613225%8 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c2,670$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.442311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf169…272cbacked Yes3c2,644$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd13e…356cbacked Yes8c2,625$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.04147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes4c2,502$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007540%30 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c2,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9948630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d4…cf3cbacked Yes3c2,461$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c2,410$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.623103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes8c2,329$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18414854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes11c2,327$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.225550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0c…bf72backed Yes6c2,297$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes3c2,294$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.281657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a5…e017backed Yes3c2,244$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4877…5c7fbacked Yes3c2,244$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-59.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f5…b0d4backed Yes3c2,230$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfe…ccc8backed Yes3c2,230$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes8c2,217$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.364219%8 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes3c2,154$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa026…1155backed Yes3c2,113$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e24…5368backed Yes3c2,113$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e09…39e2backed Yes3c1,931$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x839e…1f81backed Yes3c1,931$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4146…6455backed Yes3c1,834$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,801$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.961,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No44c1,800$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.84860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes4c1,726$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes5c1,702$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95af…49adbacked Yes4c1,632$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.491145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked Yes9c1,580$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.297346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes5c1,486$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes11c1,433$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2347334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc583…2ffbbacked Yes6c1,411$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c1,396$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.752036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7153…7a27backed Yes6c1,372$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9606…1205backed Yes5c1,363$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4742…1fc6backed Yes7c1,322$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabf…5c62backed Yes7c1,322$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde80…0d86backed Yes6c1,307$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…3d13backed Yes3c1,282$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.91060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8536…98c3backed Yes3c1,260$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes12c1,206$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.682227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x299b…d159backed Yes3c1,179$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea1…a57ebacked Yes9c1,146$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd291…a56fbacked Yes4c1,118$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+220.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df9…e796backed Yes4c1,102$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes6c1,100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.73650%18 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x976f…ce60backed Yes4c1,098$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1b…7c66backed Yes1c1,095$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bf…a292backed Yes6c1,088$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c1,082$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6512918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes11c1,055$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3129027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbec…b6a5backed Yes7c1,052$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.073053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x318d…74febacked Yes10c1,005$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes4c1,004$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.416832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8019119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes15c999.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9929129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e48…7239backed Yes3c998$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.94785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes6c973$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5344224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd64a…1ab6backed Yes4c958$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c900$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d2…4bb1backed Yes4c876$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a92…05c8backed Yes8c849.59$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes13c846.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103511.4%4 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddae…7d66backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505125.5%13 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfca8…8179backed Yes12c816.93$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes8c773.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8621525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Yes4c743.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No46c723.3$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.3213864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x537e…7c03backed Yes12c707.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.