TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,223,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,227,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,223,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 7,150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes63c125,286$78,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,832.264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No33c118,345$39,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,489.6135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No40c83,420$33,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,266.7610335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed No29c81,959$23,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,887.341735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes64c73,925$46,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,973.452638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+73.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb83…77eebacked Yes56c63,552$35,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,063.041764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No34c53,128$18,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,122.9914228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No54c52,759$28,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,248.6837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes48c52,171$25,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,144.0114821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes59c51,651$30,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,422.832740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+53.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb129…34bfbacked Yes53c51,183$27,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,921.46333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No43c45,482$19,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,571.494413.6%6 W · 38 L-9.9wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No27c41,860$11,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,272.6335921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes71c38,951$27,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,123.6416553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes68c32,814$22,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,655.976459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1f…907dbacked No52c30,459$15,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,890.282725.9%7 W · 20 L-8.4wins-0.31per pick57cpaid-53.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked Yes62c26,772$16,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,100.462429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed No45c26,167$11,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,903.755343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbce…3da1backed No24c25,900$6,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,244.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x612b…6fddbacked No45c24,456$11,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0532152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No36c23,713$8,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,591.7916739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No39c23,678$9,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,284.487946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe1c…02bbbacked No38c23,666$9,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,040933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked Yes51c23,330$11,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,454.992045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No29c23,288$6,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,691.748433.3%28 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes70c22,041$15,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,560.7248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No14c20,998$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,918.45635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes76c20,669$15,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,048.5316638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No45c20,211$9,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,012.712223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes61c19,467$11,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,611.17943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes56c19,176$10,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,390.874136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes61c19,147$11,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,533.44057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x870c…49cebacked No37c18,416$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,900966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes61c18,079$10,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,134.7720438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…62e0backed No35c18,000$6,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,329.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3c…08a0backed No50c17,506$8,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,77820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…43c8backed No0c17,331$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.24540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+65.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed No56c17,204$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,699.974242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes45c16,900$7,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,210.9517737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fb…5f89backed Yes49c16,413$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,413.091353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No48c16,343$7,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,917.35749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No47c16,164$7,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,566.448937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes50c16,000$7,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,019.965442.6%23 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed No55c15,926$8,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,748.967613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed No4c15,861$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.78922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e7…9561backed No40c15,541$6,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1652729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes55c14,430$7,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,531.7718338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes59c13,848$8,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,659.282751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbab0…c07bbacked No44c13,656$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5287…3a16backed Yes33c13,579$4,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,110.211492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.1wins+0.58per pick35cpaid+209.2%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No42c13,565$5,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,696.0412341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No44c13,317$5,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,804.756251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No34c13,163$4,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,474.2836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No37c12,028$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,446.4211728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No64c11,609$7,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,450.7522547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf01…bbf7backed No44c11,488$5,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,108.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No29c11,383$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.3921521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No36c11,300$4,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,120.994042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c11,181$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.565071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No60c11,031$6,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,568.2628126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6be1backed No47c11,000$5,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,170825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked Yes67c10,864$7,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.21540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes62c10,641$6,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,017.962352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb749…cd19backed No68c10,640$7,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,257.961553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f94…7d96backed No49c10,257$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004669.6%32 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No42c10,186$4,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.0438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf567…d3efbacked Yes25c10,038$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,527.018100%8 W · 0 L+4.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+138.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No17c10,000$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68621531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes61c10,000$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,926.1313850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa941…10dcbacked No36c9,957$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x546c…868bbacked No51c9,794$4,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,98930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No25c9,718$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.8313738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes62c9,526$5,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,590.6520749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb332…2a4ebacked No53c9,475$5,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,034450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ed…b115backed No49c9,400$4,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,603.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed No43c9,396$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf192…6ee2backed Yes63c8,891$5,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.184062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+80.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No33c8,747$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,885.7719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes63c8,725$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,225.2912152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa503…2342backed No39c8,518$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,279.94955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes65c8,463$5,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.5616831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc65…0a92backed Yes60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeef…5583backed No34c7,939$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes31c7,251$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,003.5816526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e9…1f00backed No41c7,207$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick37cpaid-83.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No27c7,123$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.5431649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes77c7,007$5,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.954511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e6d…76f5backed Yes64c6,915$4,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.531060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No33c6,896$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.525523.6%13 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x454e…36cbbacked No48c6,868$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes78c6,772$5,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.2312650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4241…2563backed No45c6,713$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes57c6,636$3,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.0128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No30c6,547$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.332243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No40c6,518$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.059031.1%28 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79cd…079bbacked No57c6,515$3,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc91…31ebbacked No58c6,469$3,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,765.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x231a…d9ccbacked No49c6,450$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef7a…db70backed No62c6,228$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,885.062330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1653…0348backed Yes74c6,216$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.22128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-88.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.