Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b2acd094ebce0630fa9b3e899eb90c6a77424ebf01f67baf12b843af35f719

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,972,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,763,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,972,561 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5925…b194backed Yes	3c	70,840$2,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,285.06	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes	4c	65,550$2,682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,682.39	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f1…4c93backed Yes	6c	35,635$2,028 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,028	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	4c	33,035$1,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,364.47	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	2c	30,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes	2c	29,385$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.12	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes	7c	27,926$1,906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,906	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3069…83cdbacked Yes	4c	25,680$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.25	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1b…3eb9backed Yes	3c	25,500$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.05	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	10c	21,850$2,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,143.69	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	2c	21,492$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.06	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes	3c	20,343$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.7	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2771…d030backed Yes	5c	18,639$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes	7c	17,581$1,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,227.99	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	6c	17,566$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.16	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	7c	17,535$1,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,215.52	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes	3c	17,517$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes	3c	17,413$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.02	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	8c	16,997$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,284.69	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	5c	14,170$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.82	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	3c	13,502$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.51	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	7c	11,807$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.66	284	27.8%79 W · 205 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	4c	11,401$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.24	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	2c	11,118$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.98	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes	3c	10,749$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.41	234	20.9%49 W · 185 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x127b…afa7backed Yes	0c	10,721$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	9cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes	3c	10,700$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.96	130	22.3%29 W · 101 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes	3c	10,196$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.74	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	2c	10,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…229cbacked Yes	5c	10,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+68.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d4c…5238backed Yes	6c	9,907$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes	17c	9,766$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes	13c	9,230$1,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.18per pick	23cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	6c	9,000$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.5	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes	2c	8,670$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173	165	7.3%12 W · 153 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes	4c	8,610$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.23	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	7c	8,347$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.56	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	11c	8,000$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.29	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	4c	8,000$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328	165	41.2%68 W · 97 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes	9c	7,826$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	10c	7,601$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.96	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	4c	7,600$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.8	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes	2c	7,081$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.03	60	60%36 W · 24 L	+7.9wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+125.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1653…0348backed Yes	15c	6,579$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.24per pick	32cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	1c	6,414$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.07	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	5c	6,402$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.36	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes	6c	6,344$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.97	166	50%83 W · 83 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…7965backed Yes	3c	6,121$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.44	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-59%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf4…f240backed Yes	1c	6,111$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	10c	5,942$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.01	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8437…1c11backed Yes	17c	5,820$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked Yes	9c	5,605$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc68a…af49backed Yes	8c	5,401$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43fb…5f89backed Yes	10c	5,216$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+17.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes	5c	4,711$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.71	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes	8c	4,632$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.01	72	38.9%28 W · 44 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2f…1a88backed Yes	5c	4,541$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.67	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes	6c	4,483$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.1	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	6c	4,329$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.43	118	18.6%22 W · 96 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	4c	4,221$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.23	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b13…67debacked Yes	4c	4,218$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.3	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+122.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes	5c	4,022$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.47	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Yes	7c	4,000$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+6.8wins	+0.27per pick	17cpaid	+134.5%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeec7…f93ebacked Yes	8c	3,945$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x207b…c5f0backed Yes	5c	3,836$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.67	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	3,600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	4c	3,500$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.5	207	36.2%75 W · 132 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	7c	3,460$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	177	40.7%72 W · 105 L	+13.9wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+36%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda63…4378backed Yes	5c	3,381$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.37	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c04…63ddbacked Yes	2c	3,370$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.92	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes	6c	3,314$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes	11c	3,300$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.99	167	43.7%73 W · 94 L	+11.9wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+21%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	3c	3,300$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.93	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66b…91a9backed Yes	7c	3,291$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-47%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes	5c	3,250$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.25	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes	25c	3,228$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes	18c	3,205$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.83	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1e…6515backed Yes	5c	3,190$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes	7c	3,179$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.1	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	4c	3,164$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.89	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes	4c	3,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.32	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb59…83f9backed Yes	2c	3,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa0…e20fbacked Yes	12c	2,993$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.47	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes	4c	2,944$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.68	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	3c	2,896$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.21	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed Yes	4c	2,781$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes	5c	2,635$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcec3…e98dbacked Yes	9c	2,628$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.94	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa395…3eddbacked Yes	8c	2,551$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	9c	2,543$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.61	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes	14c	2,534$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.33	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	26cpaid	+181.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	6c	2,500$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.24	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe071…ff3ebacked Yes	4c	2,477$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	1c	2,472$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.71	247	12.1%30 W · 217 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2222…f221backed Yes	13c	2,284$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.77	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes	5c	2,277$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.09	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	+22.6wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes	9c	2,251$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event