Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0426ffe343ca645d75c92613a323ead7cf50cf3cc69d41ebcb02343b100af792

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $744,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $645,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $744,842 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes	0c	97,703$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	3c	63,627$1,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,749.01	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes	0c	60,425$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	1c	38,261$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.97	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6d…f921backed Yes	0c	28,334$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.67	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	0c	27,784$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.07	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	12c	22,766$2,832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,831.98	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	1c	16,976$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.76	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes	5c	16,911$823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.08	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes	0c	16,442$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+4.3wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	17c	15,112$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550.4	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e7b…bcbcbacked Yes	0c	15,104$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	13c	12,805$1,665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,665.5	178	39.9%71 W · 107 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	9c	11,141$956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$955.65	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes	5c	10,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.99	215	31.2%67 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes	0c	7,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	60	13.3%8 W · 52 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	12c	7,190$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.82	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec55…a300backed Yes	12c	6,824$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	6,086$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.57	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	14c	5,124$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.87	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	15c	4,987$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.75	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	6c	4,004$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.3	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No	74c	2,725$2,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.9	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	24c	2,637$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.86	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes	2c	2,399$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.41	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes	6c	2,022$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.2	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f7…aef9backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.98	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+6.6wins	+0.18per pick	34cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes	14c	1,213$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.17	234	20.9%49 W · 185 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	3c	1,206$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.38	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	8c	1,200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f75…ce35backed Yes	5c	1,200$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.2	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	21cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No	76c	1,091$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.78	62	62.9%39 W · 23 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5839…2fc4backed Yes	1c	1,064$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	5c	1,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x027c…6ecdbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	17c	999.99$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.11	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes	7c	999.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes	6c	980.46$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.8	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	5c	946.59$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.01	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c8…c328backed Yes	2c	899.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+194.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes	6c	883.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4717…4877backed No	73c	829.53$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.79	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No	74c	701.63$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.63	84	57.1%48 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes	15c	693.33$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.32	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b9…baf2backed Yes	27c	650.83$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.84	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	+7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked No	79c	631.41$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.41	43	67.4%29 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes	26c	618$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.6	161	31.7%51 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	72c	600$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	19c	600$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5d…ed81backed No	78c	599.99$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed No	75c	569.43$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.36	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes	2c	533.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	130	22.3%29 W · 101 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4803…6febbacked Yes	7c	510$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…5ae8backed Yes	27c	481.22$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.93	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes	3c	454$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	223	33.2%74 W · 149 L	+12.9wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes	18c	404$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.72	91	24.2%22 W · 69 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes	7c	385.71$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes	4c	381.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	17c	346.57$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.29	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…7219backed Yes	7c	312.49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes	7c	307.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	29.2%21 W · 51 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No	77c	306.49$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.49	247	59.1%146 W · 101 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	300.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes	14c	268.6$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.22	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea30…f2a9backed No	79c	263.91$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.62	26	73.1%19 W · 7 L	+6.1wins	+0.23per pick	50cpaid	+61.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes	26c	263$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.38	114	32.5%37 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes	6c	256.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	201	31.8%64 W · 137 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes	8c	253.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	35.6%21 W · 38 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes	15c	240.79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.12	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes	8c	237.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes	7c	236.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe433…136bbacked Yes	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	26cpaid	+74.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	12c	212.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	360	35.3%127 W · 233 L	-30.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc948…e6cdbacked No	74c	205.23$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.94	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No	73c	200$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	142	27.5%39 W · 103 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed Yes	27c	200$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…8aabbacked Yes	15c	195.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes	20c	176.34$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	117	38.5%45 W · 72 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	24c	124.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked Yes	19c	122.85$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1f…4258backed Yes	26c	121.69$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd83c…34f6backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+4.9wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f04…d7b8backed Yes	15c	92.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes	15c	79.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5526…414abacked Yes	14c	75.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	18c	75.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb34b…5d0ebacked No	75c	74.93$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.75	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes	26c	73$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a81…ed2dbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2131…7325backed No	77c	51.77$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.91	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes	26c	47.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa06d…5af9backed No	73c	41.23$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.23	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29ce…e196backed No	77c	37$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.51	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event