TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeaaf…20c0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 55 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 36.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$459Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$458.95
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$338.3
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$67.88
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$895Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$895.5
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.5
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$995Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$995
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$245.07
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$597Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$384.52
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,608Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,607.69
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.5
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$211.9
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$207.12
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5backed Under 5.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.49
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+164.7%+$81.93
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$15.33
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.89
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$101.25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$599Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$217.53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$142.36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$62.84
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,867Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$548.91
All 10 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.23
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$497.5
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,832.65
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.75
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-66.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+323%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$19.9
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$265.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+566.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+1,233.3%+$613.58
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+25%+$24.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.