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Music · resolved market

Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22d3…5e3abacked No35c12,978$4,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5276642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c11,325$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes66c7,701$5,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.446144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa440…a487backed Yes63c6,429$4,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.383935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+72%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No32c5,453$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.766334.9%22 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No33c5,393$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.927425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes65c5,244$3,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.076943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No33c5,029$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.285343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+75.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes66c4,668$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.3914835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes65c3,600$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.9519939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes65c3,466$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.148140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No34c3,040$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.4210529.5%31 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed Yes64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0801050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No34c2,817$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.286339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes67c2,775$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.7114315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes66c2,671$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.11573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No33c2,664$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.035743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes69c2,043$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.712867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+61.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Yes63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No32c1,956$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.8860%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No35c1,935$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.656253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes65c1,914$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.783836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No34c1,863$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.533348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No37c1,836$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No40c1,747$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No34c1,528$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.161154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb46…3692backed Yes64c1,507$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No33c1,499$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5510235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed Yes73c1,441$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No35c1,402$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.9112835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No36c1,371$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8310630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No32c1,328$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.323221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+187.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No36c1,304$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed No36c1,278$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No36c1,250$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+290.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes64c1,200$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.993256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes60c1,132$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.02520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-66.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No33c1,051$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.5216250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No35c973.84$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.74531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No31c953.69$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.387343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d7…d8a3backed Yes65c927.24$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ad…f1dfbacked Yes63c917.45$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.842725.9%7 W · 20 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes43c866$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed Yes64c864$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed Yes64c861$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes64c857$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes67c851.95$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.236544.6%29 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9be0…b5fdbacked Yes67c817.72$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No33c706.58$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.862934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes65c700$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.514012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb361…808ebacked Yes66c658.42$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.821650%8 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+168%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf767…61dfbacked Yes66c622.31$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes60c608$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes66c606.99$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.38988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+46.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes60c577$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes60c562$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No33c558.13$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.577844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No29c545.65$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.455251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes64c507.54$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.922755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No34c504.46$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.614129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes68c499.99$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+61.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No32c490.66$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.037740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf3…504fbacked Yes66c444.11$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes68c427.76$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No32c400.03$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.418739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc825…6696backed Yes64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked No33c399.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Yes68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No57c367$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.191346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes68c366.8$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.812317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x128e…001dbacked No57c359$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes70c354.15$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No30c332.91$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.999333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8432…8360backed No31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes68c314.83$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.238342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes67c314.45$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.722568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No32c307.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.895554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked Yes67c305.97$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.971030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes66c300$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1015633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Yes70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No35c283.47$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.823154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No35c275.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.813450%17 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes62c274.25$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.257139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc60e…252ebacked Yes73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes64c261.38$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No33c257$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.234012.5%5 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No31c250$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.54434.1%15 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e6b…a799backed No31c250$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.52321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80de…2e87backed Yes70c243.66$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes65c234.28$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f9…84f3backed Yes67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No32c211.13$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.145030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf948…0931backed No35c210$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.222951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes47c203.39$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1522927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3f…8728backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes68c199.84$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.952755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.