TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,526 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes8c2,606$206 inLost-$205.8114315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe50a…6717backed Yes7c2,469$182 inLost-$181.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes11c2,269$247 inLost-$2476520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c90…8770backed Yes7c2,053$154 inLost-$153.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes3c1,959$57 inLost-$56.821010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes8c1,818$153 inLost-$153.04214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-92.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes9c1,719$159 inLost-$158.57287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes7c1,401$91 inLost-$91.364831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe7b…974fbacked Yes10c1,313$125 inLost-$124.85120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes4c1,223$51 inLost-$514418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-38.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes7c1,074$75 inLost-$75.216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes2c1,061$20 inLost-$20.427121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost-$1208234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…68f0backed Yes5c952$47 inLost-$47.4260%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6ad…ca24backed Yes5c769.77$40 inLost-$39.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c733.8$40 inLost-$40.031074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes14c612$86 inLost-$85.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecee…ffffbacked Yes4c605.23$27 inLost-$26.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c604.43$18 inLost-$17.861478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed Yes4c595.49$24 inLost-$24.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fd2…fa19backed Yes4c586.35$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c5…d2a3backed Yes7c579.34$38 inLost-$3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe3a…056fbacked Yes9c579.17$50 inLost-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c500$40 inLost-$40664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes10c499.99$51 inLost-$515633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes11c499.82$56 inLost-$56.192030%6 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes8c483.68$40 inLost-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes8c368.84$29 inLost-$29.41040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb29d…256abacked Yes9c343.09$30 inLost-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9570…c84fbacked Yes8c337.5$27 inLost-$2740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes4c334.68$13 inLost-$12.972010%2 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed Yes8c300$25 inLost-$25.04240%0 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ea…ba53backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes7c281.68$20 inLost-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-84.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1587…1669backed Yes4c269.5$11 inLost-$10.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6921…b166backed Yes4c259.63$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb11…5804backed Yes8c256.91$20 inLost-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b5…a3a1backed Yes9c224.81$20 inLost-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes7c200.8$14 inLost-$14.06695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes6c172.41$10 inLost-$103327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb09…bd5dbacked Yes9c166.67$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0478…3faabacked Yes15c155.51$24 inLost-$23.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35df…347cbacked Yes8c137.5$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33a…7576backed Yes8c125$10 inLost-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.