TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x772c…0151backed Yes16c5,076$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.67287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked Yes9c3,927$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.432157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9605…a2c4backed Yes7c2,928$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.961040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x874a…d584backed Yes12c2,781$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes5c2,506$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.183625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9951…77cfbacked Yes7c1,534$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes17c1,469$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1afb…e524backed Yes8c1,448$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes5c1,044$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.71478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fa…4c6abacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f6…adc3backed Yes8c999.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba97…e8d4backed Yes6c947.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3122…e27abacked Yes5c933.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-33%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes14c814.35$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed Yes7c734.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x810f…aa88backed Yes6c734.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…58babacked Yes6c637.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes5c592.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+124.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes5c582.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c3…f02dbacked Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e4…64a7backed Yes4c560.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…dfa0backed Yes6c556.14$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.73520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+124.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6f…9b55backed Yes13c544.86$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656d…e4c9backed Yes20c511.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes11c489.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.054418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-38.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69b9…a180backed Yes13c455.51$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd310…46cebacked Yes12c427.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f63…4782backed Yes7c412.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0752…b524backed Yes4c399.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c52…63a5backed Yes8c371.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes10c348.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6614315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d7…f58dbacked Yes6c346.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23d…da1fbacked Yes4c340.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04c…9f23backed Yes6c340$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x592d…ebc6backed Yes4c337.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006a…d199backed Yes12c334.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91a5…4679backed Yes15c333.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x533e…386cbacked Yes13c326.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5883…5be1backed Yes6c325.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd783…bc12backed Yes5c317.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3433…2c9abacked Yes8c316.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398c…6ef7backed Yes6c312.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7e…0b86backed Yes7c306.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ea…b8b0backed Yes7c301.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No4c300$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.42842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+92.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cda…e01dbacked Yes7c287.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1e…59e3backed Yes4c267.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes5c265.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.343023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-63.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d6c…d024backed Yes19c257.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a86…4a34backed Yes6c250.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab1…ce50backed Yes6c245$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c233.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.871074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2148backed Yes6c224.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d62…f92abacked Yes5c223.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3560…5fd2backed Yes7c220.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…0953backed Yes16c217.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f8…c13ebacked Yes7c215.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aac…dcebbacked Yes14c208.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…61f4backed Yes15c205.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed Yes14c202.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.86240%0 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a5…4cc1backed Yes9c187.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…6876backed Yes15c184.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa52a…ed46backed Yes12c179.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07e6…41b8backed Yes14c162.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b0…c6d6backed Yes14c159.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes12c152.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.35per pick21cpaid+237.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c152.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.764629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb69…4563backed Yes7c149.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x996c…602dbacked Yes7c145.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb74…3318backed Yes19c130.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ad…f1dfbacked Yes12c129.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32725.9%7 W · 20 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b94…0fa9backed Yes22c111.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes14c105.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae87…d629backed Yes11c104.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92060%12 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd43e…37febacked Yes18c78.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x543c…42ebbacked Yes14c71.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No71c14.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.339333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.