TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb5f6…adc3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT7135.2%25 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draperbacked Terence Atmane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,033Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$2,299.77
Canadian Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Jan-Lennard Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$933Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$933.24
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$850
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.51
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Ferybacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$710
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro Mochizukibacked Shintaro Mochizuki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak Djokovicbacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Wimbledon ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovicbacked Stefanos Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$424.99
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$1,631.58
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parrybacked Diane Parry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$340
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tienbacked Facundo Acosta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wubacked Yibing Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parrybacked Diane Parry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$639Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+220.3%+$1,408.51
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Medvedevbacked Walton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$162.99
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmicbacked Michael Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverevbacked Benjamin Bonzi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.99
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruudbacked Raphael Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchagabacked Roman Andres Burruchaga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,020
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Matteo Berrettini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.22
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvilibacked Nikoloz Basilashvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Leheckabacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$740
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Busebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,025Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$1,475
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Alexei Popyrin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$358.5
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$983Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,474.86
BMW Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Luciano Darderibacked Zhizhen Zhang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.07
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,927Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,927.46
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.44
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.61
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,339.32
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$445.85
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.14
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+184.4%+$116.53
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,390Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+173.1%+$2,405.55
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$31.32
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$116.14
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$1,498.86
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.1
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.39
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.5
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.22
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$894Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+351.4%+$3,141.02
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+399%+$1,964.14
Will Jean-Philippe Veter be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.91
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$940Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+191.8%+$1,802.73
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+30%+$170.82
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.67
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,309Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$391.28
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$330
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+250%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+157.3%+$172.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$250
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.