Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d02de291243190dc83c79bf52d38b3bd62d96c04646918d3faa24059b450fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x670f…2c9bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,329$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,812$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0480…0a91backed Yes | 14c | 1,537$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889f…789bbacked Yes | 6c | 955.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b817backed Yes | 10c | 952.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922c…d099backed Yes | 13c | 911.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…31d7backed Yes | 5c | 683.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f6…76e2backed Yes | 10c | 677.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4401…b76fbacked Yes | 5c | 659.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 652.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 3c | 505.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…ce82backed Yes | 4c | 452.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1317…c5c6backed Yes | 13c | 447.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c2…e1fdbacked Yes | 3c | 421.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a8…72d6backed Yes | 21c | 410.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…7c8fbacked Yes | 15c | 410.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…6d85backed Yes | 4c | 392.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…5903backed Yes | 6c | 386.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…38c4backed Yes | 13c | 386.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…a9d9backed Yes | 11c | 363.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…c512backed Yes | 11c | 246.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 9c | 227.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…93ffbacked Yes | 7c | 192.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…7f4dbacked Yes | 35c | 183.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…1609backed Yes | 8c | 182.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…adc3backed Yes | 11c | 172.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…9e03backed Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…d0acbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Yes | 14c | 131.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -12.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Yes | 9c | 123.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0da…f1d8backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…e1f1backed Yes | 10c | 109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…8d27backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62af…347ebacked Yes | 12c | 88.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 60c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.