Fifa International · resolved market
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e77b1ad3dc69c6fcdf5d68f2bf0871453684237f5509d3eb7bbba23a8e990a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4db6…9842backed No | 2c | 4,676$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked No | 5c | 4,072$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.51 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed No | 11c | 2,497$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,939$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…9786backed No | 10c | 1,187$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 152 | 9.9%15 W · 137 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…0015backed No | 3c | 1,024$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…65fdbacked No | 2c | 909.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 77c | 891.28$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 345.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4772…5360backed No | 6c | 290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 6c | 252.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2952…97b0backed No | 15c | 233.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…43c6backed No | 5c | 227.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b817backed No | 15c | 215.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 165$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…0b50backed No | 15c | 135.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…ca7fbacked Yes | 80c | 132.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 79c | 127.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…6182backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…5e63backed No | 27c | 52.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…e98bbacked Yes | 77c | 45.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 40.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 66c | 38.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3607backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.