TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,913,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,449,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,913,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 9,179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe105…9cb3backed No77c282,094$216,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,159.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-46.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No55c279,482$154,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,920.873933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked No69c278,080$191,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,929.853770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No80c207,331$164,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,427.43933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes16c195,891$31,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,374.263823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No79c174,461$137,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,300.885745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes30c165,874$49,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,111.151936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+80.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No63c146,135$92,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,130.87538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No68c135,078$91,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,790.223351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No73c129,211$93,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,465.4817530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Yes36c124,166$44,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,562.83911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No67c123,942$83,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,863.223141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes29c121,288$35,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,768.513823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No70c119,835$83,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,330.074465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed No68c118,257$80,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,595.263525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes21c103,472$21,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,916.5112634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No71c103,447$73,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,153.7137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No69c99,507$68,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,930.938137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddd8…4471backed No77c98,288$75,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,912.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes23c92,794$20,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,963.264415.9%7 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No79c88,572$70,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,553.5626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes22c79,171$17,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,674.91428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d47…e488backed Yes23c76,728$17,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,316.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes25c75,899$19,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+79.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed No75c74,549$55,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,784.381662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No70c73,814$51,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,321.496134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed No66c73,720$48,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,846.592166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5750…b722backed Yes5c72,835$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,844.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe48…683fbacked No71c70,566$49,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,580.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes29c66,515$19,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,004.3810435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c64,964$18,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,898.7589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No71c59,739$42,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,252.5213250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes16c55,745$9,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,078.951625%4 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No66c55,661$36,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,755.4520336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes21c55,503$11,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,579.333915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes18c54,805$9,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,942.855347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9940…b140backed No70c54,502$38,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,333.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No66c54,233$35,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,381.0451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes24c53,535$12,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,649.0821521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes19c52,937$9,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,853.8742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked No77c52,864$40,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,404.751369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No68c51,890$35,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,626.374665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No69c51,183$35,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,715.8535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No67c50,877$34,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,607.867142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb049…7489backed Yes25c50,130$12,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,759.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No66c49,220$32,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,735.885846.6%27 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes8c48,197$3,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.4914129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No68c47,956$32,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,426.561637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6369…dadbbacked Yes25c44,355$11,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,026.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No55c43,326$23,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,645.5313746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fe…3cf9backed Yes8c43,139$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,473.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No67c42,855$28,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,002.8928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No79c41,929$33,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,868.2636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e54…a908backed Yes33c41,552$13,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,813.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes18c41,368$7,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,487.684814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c40,835$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.528610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked No73c40,807$29,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,031.261540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No80c40,254$32,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,113.654637%17 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ac0…f261backed Yes31c39,839$12,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,484.441030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+495.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes18c39,237$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,165.134639.1%18 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes27c38,052$10,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2506132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes29c37,500$10,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,874.997032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790f…8ca5backed Yes33c36,981$12,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,203.91911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-83.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes21c36,695$7,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,580.583315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No73c35,577$25,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,595.0822547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d1…3c94backed Yes27c34,812$9,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,352.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed No71c34,725$24,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,124.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6538…3678backed Yes30c34,706$10,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,245.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes14c34,188$4,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,814.349736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes21c33,856$7,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,111.4770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes33c33,550$11,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,228.9260%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad26…7310backed Yes30c33,342$9,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,92710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes32c33,193$10,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,7003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No77c32,952$25,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,636.9116553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5001…a8f2backed Yes4c32,920$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No62c32,500$20,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,249.973748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b57…f47fbacked No73c31,634$23,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,473.27580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes16c31,365$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100.174717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked No72c30,908$22,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,654.111747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2018…dfc5backed Yes16c30,358$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No66c30,259$19,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,282.293450%17 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0afc…30b2backed Yes21c30,049$6,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,197.59683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick38cpaid+136.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e5b…a593backed No73c30,000$21,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,099.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No64c29,895$19,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,671.643452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa06a…e5a9backed Yes34c29,537$9,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,995450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No78c29,531$23,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,429.3820035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes30c29,000$8,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,779.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bc6…5199backed Yes19c28,675$5,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,312.640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No74c28,450$20,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,469.5526138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab0…8b70backed Yes4c28,428$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.14450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+1,800.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6884…417cbacked Yes24c28,317$6,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,820.571266.7%8 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+108.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4422…96f4backed Yes23c28,148$6,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,402.481040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb682…60e6backed No65c27,969$18,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,725.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No77c27,574$21,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,207.896053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No72c27,454$19,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,797.12642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No75c26,517$19,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,524.488552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9346…cb76backed Yes23c26,330$6,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.082114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a6…280bbacked Yes43c26,163$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,2002147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes19c25,883$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,985.753342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes32c25,752$8,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,284.43875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+87.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.