Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23fd2b26c4e095465ba0d2ebce8d5eda57009ddc59aad8b68ab19ca968b41eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,913,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,449,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,913,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 9,179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 77c | 282,094$216,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,159.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 55c | 279,482$154,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124,920.87 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 69c | 278,080$191,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,929.85 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 80c | 207,331$164,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,427.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 16c | 195,891$31,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,374.26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 79c | 174,461$137,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,300.88 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 30c | 165,874$49,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,111.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 63c | 146,135$92,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,130.8 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 68c | 135,078$91,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,790.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 73c | 129,211$93,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,465.48 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 36c | 124,166$44,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,562.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 67c | 123,942$83,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,863.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 29c | 121,288$35,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,768.5 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 70c | 119,835$83,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,330.07 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed No | 68c | 118,257$80,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,595.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 21c | 103,472$21,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,916.51 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 71c | 103,447$73,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,153.71 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 69c | 99,507$68,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,930.93 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4471backed No | 77c | 98,288$75,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,912.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 23c | 92,794$20,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,963.26 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 88,572$70,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,553.56 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked Yes | 22c | 79,171$17,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,674.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…e488backed Yes | 23c | 76,728$17,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,316.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 25c | 75,899$19,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed No | 75c | 74,549$55,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,784.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 70c | 73,814$51,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,321.49 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 66c | 73,720$48,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,846.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…b722backed Yes | 5c | 72,835$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,844.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe48…683fbacked No | 71c | 70,566$49,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,580.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 29c | 66,515$19,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,004.38 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 64,964$18,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,898.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 71c | 59,739$42,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,252.52 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes | 16c | 55,745$9,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,078.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 66c | 55,661$36,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,755.45 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 21c | 55,503$11,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,579.33 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 18c | 54,805$9,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,942.85 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…b140backed No | 70c | 54,502$38,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,333.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 66c | 54,233$35,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,381.04 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 24c | 53,535$12,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,649.08 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 52,937$9,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,853.87 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…cf3ebacked No | 77c | 52,864$40,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,404.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 68c | 51,890$35,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,626.37 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 69c | 51,183$35,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,715.85 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 67c | 50,877$34,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,607.86 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb049…7489backed Yes | 25c | 50,130$12,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,759.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 66c | 49,220$32,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,735.88 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 48,197$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.49 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 68c | 47,956$32,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,426.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…dadbbacked Yes | 25c | 44,355$11,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,026.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 55c | 43,326$23,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,645.53 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…3cf9backed Yes | 8c | 43,139$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 67c | 42,855$28,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,002.89 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 79c | 41,929$33,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,868.26 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…a908backed Yes | 33c | 41,552$13,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,813.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 41,368$7,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,487.68 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 40,835$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 73c | 40,807$29,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,031.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 80c | 40,254$32,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,113.65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…f261backed Yes | 31c | 39,839$12,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,484.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 18c | 39,237$7,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,165.13 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 27c | 38,052$10,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,250 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 29c | 37,500$10,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,874.99 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…8ca5backed Yes | 33c | 36,981$12,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,203.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 21c | 36,695$7,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,580.58 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 73c | 35,577$25,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,595.08 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…3c94backed Yes | 27c | 34,812$9,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,352.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed No | 71c | 34,725$24,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,124.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…3678backed Yes | 30c | 34,706$10,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,245.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 14c | 34,188$4,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,814.34 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes | 21c | 33,856$7,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,111.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes | 33c | 33,550$11,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,228.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…7310backed Yes | 30c | 33,342$9,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,927 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 32c | 33,193$10,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,700 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 77c | 32,952$25,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,636.91 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…a8f2backed Yes | 4c | 32,920$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 62c | 32,500$20,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,249.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…f47fbacked No | 73c | 31,634$23,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,473.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 16c | 31,365$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100.17 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked No | 72c | 30,908$22,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,654.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…dfc5backed Yes | 16c | 30,358$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 66c | 30,259$19,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,282.29 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…30b2backed Yes | 21c | 30,049$6,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,197.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 38cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed No | 73c | 30,000$21,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,099.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 64c | 29,895$19,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,671.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…e5a9backed Yes | 34c | 29,537$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 78c | 29,531$23,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,429.38 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 30c | 29,000$8,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,779.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…5199backed Yes | 19c | 28,675$5,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,312.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 28,450$20,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,469.55 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…8b70backed Yes | 4c | 28,428$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +1,800.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 24c | 28,317$6,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,820.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Yes | 23c | 28,148$6,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,402.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb682…60e6backed No | 65c | 27,969$18,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,725.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 77c | 27,574$21,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,207.89 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 72c | 27,454$19,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,797.1 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 75c | 26,517$19,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,524.48 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 23c | 26,330$6,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,129.08 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 43c | 26,163$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…68dbbacked Yes | 19c | 25,883$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 32c | 25,752$8,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,284.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.