TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x662c…bfe7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
247
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 85 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$4,512Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33%+$1,488
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,499Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100.2%+$1,501.23
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24,044Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24,043.6
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+780.4%+$842.1
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+66.7%+$520
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+338.6%+$1,273.8
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$4,389Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+275.3%+$12,081.28
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19,993Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.6%+$6,524.48
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$168
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$6,349Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,349
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,496Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.2%+$879.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$760
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$98.31
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$60
Israel strike on Yemen by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$242.47
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$97.66
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+121.3%+$191.88
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$31.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+381.5%+$376.36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+28.2%+$60.5
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$102.38
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$581.45
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Showing 25 of 85 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$86.25
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$117
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,991Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+50.7%+$1,009.06
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.37
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+213.4%+$1,361.8
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$648Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.8%+$251.72
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,749Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48.2%+$1,325.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+294.7%+$597.31
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,114.33
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$245
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,034Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,034
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$330
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$25.3
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,375Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+29.1%+$399.63
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+233.3%+$1,050
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$240
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,804Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+31.8%+$891.38
Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,672Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,671.96
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$961Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+37.8%+$363.6
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,671Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.7%+$845.64
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,575Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,574.84
Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,702Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$798.5
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+171.9%+$444.46
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+32%+$266.42
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20,628Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20,628.02
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$264.95
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,715Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$2,715.26
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$96.2
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$631.97
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$4,142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$4,141.68
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,430Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+36.2%+$1,605.7
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.54
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+36.5%+$730.23
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+94.5%+$317.2
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+43.8%+$96.29
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.78
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$5,279Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,278.61
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,429Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+176.6%+$4,289.79
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,225Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,225
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.57
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$164
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+34%+$8.84
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.98
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,159Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+46.4%+$537.86
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$737Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+86.9%+$640.23
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$960
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$811Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+98.1%+$795.31
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$189.82
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$58.66
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$6,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$6,693.44
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10,223Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10,222.61
Elections go right: Octoberbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+49.9%+$249.73
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,412Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+43.1%+$1,038.36
Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.38
Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+304%+$301
Will Starostové get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$778Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+44%+$342.48
Will Starostové get between 13% and 16% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.11
Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$136
SPD wins 14% or more of vote in Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,837Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+35.5%+$1,363.32
Starostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,248Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+90.4%+$1,127.5
Pirates wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+69.8%+$86.75
ANO wins 33% or more of vote in Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+304.5%+$658.69
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,682Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+33.2%+$558.13
Lee Sang-min in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,864Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,863.68
Will the next Pope be from Africa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$530.74
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,532.32
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+377.5%+$371.57
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$113.07
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$642Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$641.8
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$315.79
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$359.04
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$384.65
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$535.64
Megaquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.1
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.25
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on September 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.26
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+58.8%+$99.6
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+35.9%+$107.94
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on September 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$113.8
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.64
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.09
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Services Down Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$51.4
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+31%+$118.25
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.81
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.84
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$229.21
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$243
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,093Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,093.03
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$828Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+38.9%+$322
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$645Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+31.9%+$205.48
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,280Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$540.22
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+111.8%+$316.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,419Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+32.4%+$1,430.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,785Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$509.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,830Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+26.1%+$1,259.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.