TailMyPicks
Market

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c11,809$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.941,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes75c8,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0004148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No25c6,941$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.071,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes79c6,090$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No12c3,759$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1323253.4%124 W · 108 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978c…7e69backed No48c1,750$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.89825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf577…00cabacked No30c1,480$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No14c1,319$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.995418.5%10 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes63c1,069$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick41cpaid+161.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf64…668cbacked No15c1,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97e…da44backed Yes70c846.58$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes78c810.62$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.821625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No21c756.68$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3381240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa905…fd4fbacked No19c750.19$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No23c678.98$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a8…7de4backed No9c649$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes78c600$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes7c571$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.031225%3 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+129.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes73c567.78$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.521,11243.7%486 W · 626 L+25.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c564.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0627429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed No12c550$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes79c537.76$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.9612360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-90.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56d2…7491backed No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc3…d21dbacked Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5b…45c3backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8084…3f49backed Yes70c480$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes8c471.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.54per pick13cpaid+533.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No18c453$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1512035%42 W · 78 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10c6…19b6backed Yes75c439.33$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes75c433.43$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6219934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…4badbacked Yes79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No16c392.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8156548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No11c390.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.812416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No20c389.68$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0448234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed No26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No19c316.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.88524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No16c301.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6586338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No17c282.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0460229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes74c267.7$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7613941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0faa…fd96backed No26c262.7$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.51425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a1…9ff1backed Yes78c253$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No6c249.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.562326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No20c245.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.415722.8%13 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes74c229.62$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.77848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…7efbbacked No16c202.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed No33c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+83.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ac…ab83backed No8c191.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3044…86f0backed No20c179.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes79c150$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.252544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No11c134.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.739124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0a…46a4backed No18c126.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes62c122.5$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.33737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f43…cf42backed Yes76c107$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb3…c770backed No20c102.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f7…7e0cbacked Yes69c102.03$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bde…33d3backed No15c99.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes74c86.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes74c86.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9b…d771backed No13c81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No20c77.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.629323.2%68 W · 225 L-31.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x86e3…084ebacked No26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe728…ee58backed Yes78c68.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.182661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ee…4536backed Yes79c67.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc004…5092backed Yes78c60.31$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No22c51.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6351927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes68c51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.322626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes72c50.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4721820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f9…e350backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.55330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No27c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.342846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes78c35.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.710749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2406…2dd1backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+74%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x134b…8988backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.