TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5b06…9076

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
194
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 65 out of 100; worst World Politics at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3540%14 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+41.1%+$10.77
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+111.9%+$26.41
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$97.59
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.7
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.3
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.7%+$8.52
Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48.3%+$22.8
Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.5%+$4.44
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+121.4%+$43.87
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.1%+$20.55
Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+156%+$24.37
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+102.6%+$40.52
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.1%+$62.17
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36%+$20.1
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$102.01
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$29.08
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$32.52
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$46.94
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$27.84
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$29.07
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$33.51
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$63.13
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15.6
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT2528%7 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
World Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+46%+$6.3
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$84.42
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$27.85
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$22.3
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+52.9%+$17.3
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.69
Will NewJeans perform again in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+67.3%+$32.17
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$24.4
Will Semisi Sika be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+27.5%+$8.62
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$27.2
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.28
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$49.97
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.17
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.59
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+29.4%+$13.64
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+45.8%+$6.28
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.86
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$31.73
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$43.4
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.74
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$39.1
All 25 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT2454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$10.1
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.45
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+151.5%+$54.22
GPT ads by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.2%+$14.95
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.92
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.9
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.62
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+114.1%+$21.32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+62.6%+$7.7
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+117.4%+$32.4
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$26.75
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+43.9%+$6.1
Will Lilo & Stitch be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+39.8%+$5.69
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15.17
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14.9
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+50.6%+$13.44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+49.7%+$13.28
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+40.4%+$5.76
Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
All 24 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+74%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Stocks — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $290 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$11.04
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+80.2%+$35.59
Will Apple (AAPL) hit $265 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$20.8
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13.98
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+49.3%+$26.4
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.6%+$9.6
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+1,161.8%+$119.95
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$26.1
Will Google reach $335 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+102.6%+$40.51
Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.6
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.2
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+32.3%+$14.65
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15.84
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+86.9%+$9.3
Will Microsoft dip to $465 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$42.8
Will NVIDIA dip to $172 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$12.7
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$6.1
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+258.1%+$29.56
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.82
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.7
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$26.5
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$23.32
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.36
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.12
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+66.3%+$27.9
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.56
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10.16
Will Andor win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+83.8%+$9.12
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+152.1%+$24.13
Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$23.76
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$16.8
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+70.2%+$12.38
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+108.9%+$41.7
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+115.3%+$26.78
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18.5
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$18.61
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14.46
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1291.7%11 W · 1 L+5.0wins+0.42per pick50cpaid+106.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+97.4%+$9.87
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+124.7%+$33.29
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+193.7%+$19.78
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.4%+$21.64
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+59.5%+$35.06
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+55.9%+$68.1
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+247.9%+$28.46
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+212.5%+$40.8
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+89.8%+$28.39
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+198.5%+$26.6
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+42.3%+$11.9
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.3
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.9
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.4
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.48
Will Russia enter Hryshyne by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+217.5%+$27.4
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$12.3
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+98%+$9.9
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$4.2
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jenson Brooksby vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+145.2%+$82.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.2%+$18.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+80.9%+$31.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+60.6%+$41.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+29.9%+$4.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.