Space · resolved market
Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e9b6885bb206354ee00a8577e97971ebb07d934d4bac5e15060dca51a03c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ee1…804ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,007$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 25c | 1,695$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 66c | 1,108$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 16c | 831.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 19c | 747.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 3c | 687.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +2,888.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 3c | 433.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 28c | 430$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…6950backed Yes | 48c | 382.2$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 252.51$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…e11abacked Yes | 29c | 189.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…fab1backed No | 70c | 177.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 50c | 146.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 35c | 136.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 121.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…404abacked Yes | 25c | 109.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…4775backed Yes | 18c | 107.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…4623backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 97.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 37c | 73.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e9…4614backed Yes | 41c | 52.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 35c | 51.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed No | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bbc1backed Yes | 39c | 38.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 60c | 29.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 49c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 74c | 25.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 63c | 16.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.