TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb94f…04d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Space, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Space at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 58°F or higher on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.29
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.94
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.78
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20.73
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10.65
All 9 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick1cpaid+1,267.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10.56
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Japan (BO1)backed Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$13.29
LoL: Japan vs T1 (BO1)backed Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.12
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.2
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$21.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ruzic vs. Timofeeva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$69.26
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5)backed Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+2,888.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+2,888.4%+$664.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: T1 vs Fnatic (BO5)backed Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$17.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$11.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lowe's Companies (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.