TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Team Yandex, Xtreme Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,266
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,533

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,266 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06c0…e618backed Xtreme Gaming36c36,485$13,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,307.745761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Team Yandex64c25,718$16,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,449.472133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x303b…53cabacked Team Yandex2c8,450$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.281711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Xtreme Gaming77c8,413$6,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.230138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Yandex65c8,060$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.5727645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex20c8,001$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.731,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team Yandex55c5,869$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.8512351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Xtreme Gaming56c4,430$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.758046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Team Yandex8c4,049$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6912050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Xtreme Gaming48c3,921$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.9619047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Xtreme Gaming40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.995541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Yandex33c2,616$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.1134146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Xtreme Gaming40c2,600$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.5918649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Yandex29c2,516$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.9318452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Yandex68c2,029$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.6913262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Xtreme Gaming32c2,011$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.328258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Team Yandex65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Yandex9c1,825$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7538049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Xtreme Gaming45c1,700$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.4546664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Xtreme Gaming35c1,693$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.666854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Yandex64c1,534$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98211955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Yandex66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Yandex20c1,500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29520642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Team Yandex63c1,500$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.983354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Yandex67c1,491$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Team Yandex5c1,272$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3568…c765backed Team Yandex13c1,250$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.071936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Yandex64c1,232$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.7537832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Yandex26c1,088$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Team Yandex65c1,060$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6895044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Xtreme Gaming78c1,025$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5826957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Yandex63c999.99$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.998950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked Xtreme Gaming64c972.07$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.073545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Yandex60c939$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.5116835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Yandex66c800$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5287047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfce…b388backed Team Yandex60c748.33$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4491040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Xtreme Gaming37c632.23$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.2341248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Xtreme Gaming34c599.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.9917146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Xtreme Gaming37c540$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.28223.2%19 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Team Yandex15c507.43$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3414537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Yandex25c502.09$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.991,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Xtreme Gaming36c501.3$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8325444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Team Yandex60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Yandex65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32515653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Xtreme Gaming79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10525547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc91…67a6backed Team Yandex50c499.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Team Yandex29c499.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14322033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Xtreme Gaming37c499.98$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.9991356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Yandex51c482.87$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.689837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Yandex21c468$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9323546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Team Yandex57c466.39$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2510945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870e…dd0bbacked Team Yandex67c450.6$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Team Yandex35c408.9$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.123650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Team Yandex34c399.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13814751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Xtreme Gaming33c394.59$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Xtreme Gaming37c391.89$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.896240.3%25 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Xtreme Gaming73c391.41$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.415062%31 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed Team Yandex3c370.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming56c361.35$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.9985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Xtreme Gaming71c351.53$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.738750.6%44 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b5…e049backed Team Yandex16c330.16$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b47…25d3backed Xtreme Gaming35c320.86$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.566334.9%22 W · 41 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Team Yandex6c317.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3314446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…22aabacked Team Yandex60c309.13$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Xtreme Gaming35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Team Yandex28c284.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Yandex40c282.19$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4120361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Xtreme Gaming72c278.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.141560%9 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Xtreme Gaming36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.787341.1%30 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7887645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Xtreme Gaming36c274.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.028349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e5…b8ffbacked Team Yandex20c263.46$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.12250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Yandex40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x056a…611fbacked Xtreme Gaming43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.562343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4cb…bb7abacked Team Yandex14c208.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7102…28b4backed Team Yandex5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Xtreme Gaming35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1306936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Yandex21c191.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Xtreme Gaming34c175.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1453634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Team Yandex65c170.74$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9811551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…ef23backed Xtreme Gaming36c166.61$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.631546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Yandex23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Xtreme Gaming36c147.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6213238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89d4…01fbbacked Xtreme Gaming79c135.75$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Team Yandex8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104940.8%20 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed Team Yandex11c118.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137753.2%41 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Xtreme Gaming36c115$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Team Yandex64c103.63$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.321450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Team Yandex70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Xtreme Gaming30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Xtreme Gaming37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.35750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Team Yandex64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643650%18 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Team Yandex64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647226.4%19 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…3202backed Team Yandex35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357135.2%25 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Team Yandex53c93.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4933945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Xtreme Gaming34c91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Xtreme Gaming36c87.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed Team Yandex23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208229.3%24 W · 58 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Xtreme Gaming47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1143647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Xtreme Gaming36c70.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.321741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.