Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8bf7eb05f37dbe1d91c6ebf0303ac86a65679032d15e27d3538ceb145237e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Team Yandex, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex | 39c | 4,906$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.12 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 3,326$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.84 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 1,586$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.54 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Yandex | 18c | 1,130$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Team Yandex | 38c | 1,056$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.28 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Yandex | 27c | 996.38$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.8 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Yandex | 23c | 866.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 746.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Team Yandex | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex | 50c | 691.5$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.83 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 555$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…3559backed Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 517$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 416.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 281$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…ff10backed Team Yandex | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Team Yandex | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Team Yandex | 40c | 124.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Yandex | 37c | 116.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…c1d3backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 108.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Team Yandex | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Yandex | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…b6cbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 68.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Yandex | 42c | 60.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Team Yandex | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 49.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 44.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.