Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x962a6fba0f3d20ee6cdde5055f31e5a8935793082094b28df2c41fe57fd92e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,189$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 1c | 990.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 8c | 838.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 751.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.81 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 627.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 618.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 59c | 388.16$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…3583backed No | 3c | 355.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 10c | 282.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 230$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 183.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…3d79backed No | 10c | 120.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 100.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 24c | 68.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 56c | 66.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 54.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 50.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 38c | 36.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 35.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 46c | 33.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 54c | 33.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 54c | 33.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 55c | 32.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 31.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 69c | 28.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 26.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 67c | 23.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 53c | 18.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.